{
 "label": "analysis",
 "by": "incident.meteorologist@web-summit.dinis",
 "written_utc": "2026-11-10T19:05Z",
 "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-10T19:01Z",
 "note": "Reasoning from the facts in this folder; not IPMA's words. Times are UTC = Lisbon time (WET). See analysis.md for the reasons.",
 "wednesday_lisbon": {
  "deterioration_from_utc": "2026-11-11T05:00Z",
  "worst_window_utc": [
   "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
  ],
  "likely_peak_utc": [
   "2026-11-11T15:00Z",
   "2026-11-11T19:00Z"
  ],
  "easing_from_utc": "2026-11-11T19:00Z",
  "ends_utc": "2026-11-11T21:00Z",
  "confidence": {
   "window": "medium",
   "peak_hour_and_strength": "low"
  },
  "why": [
   "red wind and red rain overlap 12:00-18:00 (warnings.json)",
   "TAF gust groups 09:00-18:00, PROB40 58 kt 10:00-18:00 (airport.json)",
   "IPMA hourly model: mean wind peak 45-49 km/h at 17:00-18:00 with the swing to NW (forecast.json, run of 07:55 Tue)",
   "communiqué no. 2: strongest gusts on the southern edge; track between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro, highly uncertain (communiques.json)"
  ]
 },
 "lead_times": [
  {
   "warning": "storm named, orange expected, upgrade possible",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "2026-11-09T13:17Z",
   "lead_hours": 46.7,
   "kind": "fact",
   "source": "IPMA communiqué no. 1"
  },
  {
   "warning": "ANEPC Aviso 21",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "2026-11-09T20:30Z",
   "lead_hours": 39.5,
   "kind": "fact",
   "source": "ANEPC"
  },
  {
   "warning": "red wind 12:00-21:00",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "2026-11-10T08:31Z",
   "lead_hours": 27.5,
   "kind": "press",
   "source": "Lusa via AWAY, 08:46 UTC"
  },
  {
   "warning": "orange sea 12:00-21:00",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "by 2026-11-10T14:23Z",
   "lead_hours_at_least": 21.6,
   "kind": "fact"
  },
  {
   "warning": "orange rain 05:00-12:00",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T05:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "by 2026-11-10T14:23Z",
   "lead_hours_at_least": 14.6,
   "kind": "fact"
  },
  {
   "warning": "red rain 12:00-18:00",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "between 2026-11-10T16:52Z and 17:42Z",
   "lead_hours": 18.5,
   "kind": "fact"
  },
  {
   "warning": "yellow sea Wed 21:00-Thu 03:00",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T21:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "by 2026-11-10T16:52Z",
   "lead_hours_at_least": 28.1,
   "kind": "fact"
  },
  {
   "warning": "LPPT TAF gusts 48 kt (40% 58 kt)",
   "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T09:00Z",
   "first_signal_utc": "by 2026-11-10T15:23Z",
   "lead_hours_at_least": 17.6,
   "kind": "fact"
  }
 ],
 "updates": [
  {
   "written_utc": "2026-11-10T21:25Z",
   "label": "analysis",
   "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-10T21:18Z",
   "fact": "IPMA hourly model for Lisbon changed values with the same 07:55 stamp: Wed peak mean 23 km/h at 20:00 NW (was 49 at 18:00); wind swing to N at 18:00, NW at 19:00 (was 17:00)",
   "likely_peak_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T17:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T20:00Z"
   ],
   "worst_window_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
   ],
   "ends_utc": "2026-11-11T21:00Z",
   "confidence": {
    "window": "medium",
    "peak_hour_and_strength": "low"
   },
   "why": "the peak tracks the wind swing; lower mean wind fits the centre passing near Lisbon; IPMA's red warnings (unchanged) outrank one model at one point"
  },
  {
   "written_utc": "2026-11-10T23:25Z",
   "label": "analysis",
   "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-10T23:22Z",
   "fact": "TAF LPPT 102300Z weaker than 101700Z: BECMG 07-09 16017G27KT; TEMPO 09-16 16030G45KT +RA; PROB30 (was 40) TEMPO 10-18 18043G58KT +TSRA; BECMG 18-20 26012KT; Thu 00-06 W 12 kt no gusts",
   "likely_peak_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
   ],
   "worst_window_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
   ],
   "ends_utc": "2026-11-11T21:00Z",
   "confidence": {
    "window": "medium",
    "peak_hour_and_strength": "low"
   },
   "thursday_morning": {
    "view": "behind the storm",
    "confidence": "medium",
    "why": "TAF W 12 kt no gusts 00-06; model 16-24 km/h mean; only yellow sea to 03:00"
   },
   "why": "TAF peak 09-16 (ahead of the centre) vs model peak 19-20 (behind it): peak widened back to the red overlap; red warnings unchanged and outrank one point"
  },
  {
   "written_utc": "2026-11-10T23:58Z",
   "label": "analysis",
   "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-10T23:51:47Z",
   "fact": "IPMA (CAP sent 21:23) moved Lisbon's red rain to Wed 09:00-18:00 and orange rain to 00:00-09:00; CAP sent times: red wind 07:18:40 Tue, red rain first 16:30:01 Tue; open data lagged CAP by 2 h+",
   "worst_window_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T09:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
   ],
   "likely_peak_utc": [
    "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
    "2026-11-11T18:00Z"
   ],
   "ends_utc": "2026-11-11T21:00Z",
   "confidence": {
    "window": "medium",
    "peak_hour_and_strength": "low"
   },
   "lead_times_revised": [
    {
     "warning": "red wind 12:00-21:00",
     "sent_utc": "2026-11-10T07:18:40Z",
     "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
     "lead_hours": 28.7,
     "kind": "fact (CAP)"
    },
    {
     "warning": "red rain (first, 12:00-18:00)",
     "sent_utc": "2026-11-10T16:30:01Z",
     "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
     "lead_hours": 19.5,
     "kind": "fact (CAP)"
    },
    {
     "warning": "red rain moved to 09:00",
     "sent_utc": "2026-11-10T21:23:00Z",
     "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T09:00Z",
     "lead_hours": 11.6,
     "kind": "fact (CAP)"
    },
    {
     "warning": "orange rain moved to 00:00",
     "sent_utc": "2026-11-10T21:23:00Z",
     "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T00:00Z",
     "lead_hours": 2.6,
     "kind": "fact (CAP)"
    },
    {
     "warning": "orange sea 12:00-21:00",
     "sent_utc": "2026-11-10T12:09:08Z",
     "starts_utc": "2026-11-11T12:00Z",
     "lead_hours": 23.8,
     "kind": "fact (CAP)"
    }
   ],
   "why": "rain red now from 09:00 widens the worst window; the wind red (12:00-21:00) is unchanged; second model met.no also puts the wind swing at 18:00 (N), mean 36 km/h"
  },
  {
   "written_utc": "2026-11-11T00:05Z",
   "label": "hypothesis",
   "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-10T23:57Z",
   "hypothesis": "CHARLES's centre passes very close to Lisbon about 17:00-18:00 Wed, more likely just south of it (further south than the Tuesday-morning guidance)",
   "for": [
    "met.no and IPMA's current run: wind backs to SE/ESE then swings to N at 18:00 (north-of-track pattern); no S/SW stage",
    "IPMA's earlier values veered SE-S-NW (south-of-track pattern): the guidance moved",
    "met.no MSLP minimum 986.7 hPa at 17-18Z, +5 hPa in the next hour; ~160 deg swing in 1 h: near-overhead passage",
    "weaker wind in newer guidance (IPMA mean 49->23 km/h; 23:00 TAF weaker) while the strongest gusts are on the southern edge (communiqué no. 2)",
    "red rain moved earlier to 09:00 (weaker reason)"
   ],
   "against": [
    "IPMA's red wind warning for Lisbon unchanged",
    "IPMA's stated track 'between Sines and Cabo Carvoeiro' already includes Lisbon; no communiqué no. 3",
    "point models move (IPMA's values halved under one stamp)",
    "TAF still SSE 30G45KT 09-16, PROB30 58 kt",
    "Open-Meteo not read (rate limit)"
   ],
   "weighing": "consistent with a track close to and just south of Lisbon; does not lower the danger; worst timing towards the passage ~16:00-19:00 with a possible lull near the centre",
   "confidence": "low to medium",
   "test_on_wednesday": "wind backing to E/NE before N and pressure minimum ~987 hPa at 17-18Z at LPPT and stations = centre south; veering through SW/W = centre north",
   "prompt_not_evidence": "watcher@web-summit.jose's signal (an undated image on a non-IPMA public page) prompted the question; not used as evidence"
  }
 ],
 "next_read_utc": "2026-11-11T00:22Z"
}