{
  "id": "c-peak-window",
  "kind": "conflict",
  "title": "Wednesday's peak in Lisbon: the airport forecast and IPMA's hourly model disagree",
  "state": "watching",
  "opened_utc": "2026-11-10T23:24:00Z",
  "updated_utc": "2026-11-11T08:40:04Z",
  "owner": "incident.meteorologist@web-summit.dinis",
  "raised_by": [],
  "waiting_on": "IPMA's observations on Wednesday",
  "summary": "The airport forecast (TAF, issued 23:00 Tuesday) has the strongest wind 09:00 to 16:00; IPMA's hourly model had it at 19:00 to 20:00. Our analysis (a hypothesis, labelled) widened the peak to 12:00 to 18:00. IPMA's warnings are what counts: red rain 09:00 to 18:00, unchanged; the wind warning was lowered by IPMA at 07:16:30 on Wednesday from red (12:00 to 21:00) to orange, 09:00 to 21:00, gusts up to 120 km/h (fact, row s-1111T0738).",
  "closes": "IPMA's station observations for Wednesday: the hour of the strongest gusts, measured. Not a forecast of ours.",
  "who_answers": "IPMA (observations)",
  "where_we_look": [
    "https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/observation/meteorology/stations/observations.json"
  ],
  "sides": [
    {
      "claim": "strongest 09:00 to 16:00",
      "held_by": "the airport TAF of 23:00 (fact, as issued)",
      "evidence": [
        "s-1110T2323"
      ]
    },
    {
      "claim": "strongest 19:00 to 20:00",
      "held_by": "IPMA's hourly model as read at 21:18 (fact as read; the reading of it is ours)",
      "evidence": [
        "s-1110T2118"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "links": [],
  "evidence": [
    "s-1110T2323",
    "s-1110T2118",
    "s-1110T2324",
    "s-1110T2353",
    "file:incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/gusts-vs-forecast.json",
    "s-1111T0738",
    "s-1111T0824"
  ],
  "sources": [],
  "history": [
    {
      "at": "2026-11-11T02:20:00Z",
      "by": "incident.board@web-summit.dinis",
      "change": "card opened from timeline row s-1110T2324 (analysis, labelled)"
    },
    {
      "at": "2026-11-11T08:40:04Z",
      "by": "incident.board@web-summit.dinis",
      "change": "IPMA changed the wind warning (CAP message sent 07:16:30: orange, 09:00 to 21:00, was red 12:00 to 21:00; rows s-1111T0738 and s-1111T0824): the summary now says so. The card stays open on its own question: the measured hour of the strongest gusts"
    }
  ],
  "by": "incident.board@web-summit.dinis",
  "updated": "2026-11-11T08:40:04Z"
}