{
  "about": "Edition 1 of storm-charles.promptugal.news's decision brief on Storm Charles: the words and judgements of this edition (the lead, what to watch, the authorities' decisions, sources compared). The figures (warnings, observations, flights, notices) are drawn by tools/brief-make.mjs from the incident's data files as they stood at the as-of time. Every item is labelled fact, evidence or hypothesis and carries its source and the time read. Not a warning service: IPMA issues the warnings and ANEPC the instructions.",
  "by": "incident.brief@web-summit.dinis",
  "updated": "2026-11-11T11:55:00Z",
  "id": "SC-BRIEF-20261111-E1",
  "edition": 1,
  "as_of": "2026-11-11T11:40:00Z",
  "next": "At the next big change: an IPMA message, Web Summit's word on Day 3, or the end of the storm; then an \"after the storm\" edition, forecast beside observations.",
  "incident": "2026-11-10-storm-charles",
  "lead": [
    { "label": "fact", "text": "IPMA has red rain warnings in force today over eight mainland districts: Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja and Faro from 09:00 to 18:00, Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco and Portalegre from 12:00 to 18:00. Faro also has a red wind warning to 21:00 (gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly 140 km/h in the most exposed places).", "src": [{ "name": "IPMA warnings, open data", "url": "https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/forecast/warnings/warnings_www.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" }] },
    { "label": "fact", "text": "In Lisbon the rain is heavy and steady, 3 to 6.5 mm an hour at each of IPMA's four stations in the city, in every hour from 07:00 to 10:00; the wind so far is far below the warning (the airport observed 17 km/h and no gust at 11:00). IPMA lowered Lisbon's wind warning from red to orange at 07:16; it runs to 21:00.", "src": [{ "name": "IPMA station observations", "url": "https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/observation/meteorology/stations/observations.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" }, { "name": "Lisbon airport METAR (NOAA Aviation Weather)", "url": "https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LPPT&hours=30&format=json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" }] },
    { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Where the centre passes is still uncertain: our meteorologist's latest reading (low confidence) is that it may pass south of Lisbon. A lull is not the end: IPMA's warnings, not the weather outside, say when it is over.", "src": [{ "name": "incident.meteorologist@, analysis 11:28", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/timeline.md", "read": "2026-11-11T11:28:00Z" }] }
  ],
  "watch": [
    { "at": "12:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Orange sea warning starts for Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja and Faro: south-west waves 5 to 7 m, up to 13 m maximum (to 21:00).", "src": "IPMA warnings" },
    { "at": "12:00–16:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Lisbon airport's forecast (TAF 11:00): at times south 20 kt gusting 35 (65 km/h) in rain; a 30% chance of thunderstorms with 40 kt gusting 55 (102 km/h).", "src": "Lisbon TAF" },
    { "at": "12:00–15:00", "label": "evidence", "text": "CP suppresses four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge in the window it calls the most critical.", "src": "CP, via the press" },
    { "at": "13:00", "label": "evidence", "text": "Madeira's schools reopen (closed in the morning by the regional civil protection).", "src": "SRPC Madeira, via the press" },
    { "at": "16:00–18:00", "label": "fact", "text": "TAF: wind turning west-north-west 12 kt by 18:00, no significant weather.", "src": "Lisbon TAF" },
    { "at": "18:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Red rain warnings end in all eight districts.", "src": "IPMA warnings" },
    { "at": "18:00–21:00", "label": "fact", "text": "TAF: at times west-north-west 17 kt gusting 27 (50 km/h).", "src": "Lisbon TAF" },
    { "at": "21:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Lisbon's orange wind and orange sea warnings end; yellow sea (waves 4 to 5 m) to 03:00 Thursday. Faro's red wind ends.", "src": "IPMA warnings" },
    { "at": "Thu 00:00–12:00", "label": "fact", "text": "No IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow on Thursday morning. IPMA's model: west wind, mean 15 to 24 km/h; showers, rain chance up to 92%.", "src": "IPMA warnings and IPMA's hourly model (run 07:56)" },
    { "at": "pending", "label": "fact", "text": "Web Summit's word on Day 3 (Thursday): it \"aims to proceed as planned\", an aim, not yet a decision.", "src": "Web Summit, 10 Nov 19:09" }
  ],
  "signs": [
    { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "The wind's direction at the airport: backing toward east while the pressure falls fits a centre passing south of Lisbon; a swing to north-west with rising pressure would mean it has passed.", "src": "incident.meteorologist@, 11:28" },
    { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Thunderstorm cells (TCU or CB in the METAR): the TAF gives its strongest gusts only with thunderstorms, so a short, sharp spell is the case to watch, not a long blow.", "src": "our reading of the TAF" },
    { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Hourly rain above 6 mm at the city's stations, at high water: the press reports the risk of rain and tide together hindering drainage (we hold no tide table yet).", "src": "our reading; CNN Portugal live, 08:27" }
  ],
  "decided": [
    { "label": "fact", "who": "Government of Portugal", "what": "Alert situation for the whole mainland, Wednesday 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services closed; outdoor events suspended.", "when": "10 Nov 12:10", "url": "https://portugal.gov.pt/", "row": "s-1110T1210" },
    { "label": "fact", "who": "Web Summit", "what": "Day 2 (Wednesday) will not take place, on the government's formal advice; Day 3 (Thursday) \"aims to proceed as planned\".", "when": "10 Nov 19:09", "url": "https://websummit.com/blog/web-summit/important-event-update-2026/", "row": "s-1110T1909" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lisbon City Council (mayor)", "what": "All of Lisbon's road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too.", "when": "10 Nov 13:16 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/tunnels.json" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "CP and Infraestruturas de Portugal", "what": "Four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge suppressed, 12:00 to 15:00.", "when": "10 Nov 23:10 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/cp.json" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lusoponte", "what": "Vasco da Gama bridge limited to 100 km/h because of the weather.", "when": "11 Nov 09:24 (Lusa)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/timeline.md", "row": "s-1111T0957" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "Transtejo Soflusa", "what": "River crossings between Lisbon and the south bank kept running from 05:00 (one crossing, Porto Brandão–Trafaria–Belém, reported suspended in the morning).", "when": "10 Nov 18:57; 11 Nov 05:44 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/ferries.json" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "TAP Air Portugal", "what": "Operations adjusted; tickets for travel to 11 Nov may be changed without penalty to flights up to 17 Nov.", "when": "10 Nov 16:09 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/tap.json" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lisbon's hospitals", "what": "Wednesday's scheduled activity rescheduled (which hospitals: not stated).", "when": "10 Nov 18:29 (Lusa headline)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/hospitals.json" },
    { "label": "evidence", "who": "Madeira's Regional Civil Protection (SRPC)", "what": "Schools closed Wednesday morning, reopening from 13:00. 205 occurrences to 09:00, none classed as serious.", "when": "10 Nov 11:26; 11 Nov 09:00 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/madeira.json" }
  ],
  "compare": [
    { "topic": "Rain, Lisbon", "official": "Red, 09:00–18:00: \"strong and persistent\"", "models": "TAF: rain all afternoon, heavy with a 30% thunderstorm chance 12:00–16:00", "obs": "3–6.5 mm an hour at the four city stations, 07:00–10:00; 15 to 24 mm in the five hours 06:00–10:00", "press": "Heavy rain about 11:00–15:00, easing after about 18:00 (radio, 10:38)", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "What is observed matches the red rain warning in timing and character.", "confidence": "HIGH" },
    { "topic": "Wind, Lisbon", "official": "Orange, 09:00–21:00: gusts up to 120 km/h (lowered from red at 07:16)", "models": "TAF lowered twice: at times 65 km/h gusts; 30% chance of 102 km/h in thunderstorms", "obs": "Airport 17 km/h, no gust (11:00); highest gust since Tuesday 67 km/h (Tue 11:00)", "press": "Reports the lowered warning; some attribute more to IPMA than it wrote", "agree": "differ", "assessment": "So far far below the warning; the forecasts have come down toward the observations. Gusts near the warned strength would most likely come only in thunderstorms.", "confidence": "LOW" },
    { "topic": "Worst window", "official": "Warnings overlap 12:00–18:00 (red rain, orange wind, orange sea)", "models": "TAF: strongest groups 12:00–16:00, quieter from 16:00–18:00", "obs": "Pressure 998 hPa at 11:00 and falling", "press": "11:00–15:00 (radio)", "agree": "mostly agree", "assessment": "The early afternoon, to about 16:00, is the window the sources share; the peak hour within it is not known.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" },
    { "topic": "Track of the centre", "official": "Communiqué no. 2 (10 Nov 17:07): toward the mainland, \"high uncertainty in track and intensity\"", "models": "IPMA's and MET Norway's runs (07:56): a lull around 13:00, then a swing of the wind", "obs": "Wind backing south-south-east to east-south-east with falling pressure", "press": "Track moved south, toward the Algarve (radio, 10:38; not IPMA in writing)", "agree": "differ", "assessment": "Passing south of Lisbon is now as likely as passing north on what we hold; Faro's red wind fits a southern track.", "confidence": "LOW" },
    { "topic": "Sea and tide", "official": "Orange sea, 12:00–21:00: waves 5–7 m, up to 13 m; yellow to 03:00", "models": "IPMA's model: sea 3–3.5 m Thursday morning", "obs": "None of our own (no buoy, no tide gauge in our data)", "press": "Rain at high tide may hinder drainage (live blog, 08:27)", "agree": "no conflict", "assessment": "The warning is the only written word; the tide table is a gap we are filling.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" },
    { "topic": "Madeira", "official": "Red rain to 06:00, then orange; orange wind to 12:00 (130 km/h in the mountains)", "models": "n/a", "obs": "249.5 mm in six hours at Areeiro (01:00–06:00); airport wind dropped from 89 km/h gusts at 07:00 to 13 km/h at 08:00", "press": "Regional president: 479 mm somewhere on the island; 205 occurrences, none serious", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "The worst has passed Madeira; the risk now is what the rain left (slopes, streams), which only the regional civil protection can state.", "confidence": "HIGH" },
    { "topic": "End of the event", "official": "Lisbon: rain to 18:00, wind and sea to 21:00, yellow sea to 03:00; nothing above yellow on Thursday", "models": "TAF: no significant weather from about 18:00; showers on Thursday", "obs": "n/a yet", "press": "Easing after about 18:00", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "Thursday morning looks like showers and a westerly wind, not a storm; Web Summit's Day 3 word is still awaited.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }
  ],
  "gaps": [
    { "what": "Who is exposed: people under each level, by district and hour (and aged 65+)", "who": "incident.datascience@ (Kontur population, INE Census 2021, on IPMA's warning areas)", "state": "not yet in our data; this brief shows no people count until each is read at its own source" },
    { "what": "Precedents: Leslie (2018), Elsa (2019) and later storms, highest gust, incidents, customers without power", "who": "incident.datascience@ and incident.researcher@", "state": "not yet in our data" },
    { "what": "Tides: high-water times and heights for Lisbon, Cascais and Funchal", "who": "incident.datascience@ (Instituto Hidrográfico)", "state": "not yet in our data" },
    { "what": "Model ensembles: shares of the ECMWF ensemble's tracks north, near and south of Lisbon", "who": "incident.datascience@ (ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0)", "state": "not yet in our data; without it this edition gives no scenario shares" },
    { "what": "Power cuts: customers without power", "who": "incident.datascience@ (E-REDES)", "state": "not yet in our data" }
  ]
}