{ "about": "Edition 2 of storm-charles.promptugal.news's decision brief on Storm Charles: the words and judgements of this edition (the lead, what to watch, the authorities' decisions, sources compared). The figures (warnings, observations, flights, notices) are drawn by tools/brief-make.mjs from the incident's data files as they stood at the as-of time. Every item is labelled fact, evidence or hypothesis and carries its source and the time read. Not a warning service: IPMA issues the warnings and ANEPC the instructions.", "by": "incident.brief@web-summit.dinis", "updated": "2026-11-11T12:10:00Z", "id": "SC-BRIEF-20261111-E2", "edition": 2, "as_of": "2026-11-11T12:05:00Z", "next": "At the next big change: an IPMA message, Web Summit's word on Day 3, or the end of the storm; then an \"after the storm\" edition, forecast beside observations.", "incident": "2026-11-10-storm-charles", "lead": [ { "label": "fact", "text": "IPMA's red warnings now cover eight mainland districts, home to about 4.93 million residents (Census 2021), from 12:00 to 18:00: red rain in Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja, Faro, Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco and Portalegre, and red wind in Faro to 21:00 (gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly 140 km/h in exposed places). Residents are where people live, not where they are now.", "src": [ { "name": "IPMA warnings, open data", "url": "https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/forecast/warnings/warnings_www.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" }, { "name": "incident.datascience@, residents by hour (IPMA × INE)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/exposure/people-by-hour.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:51:13Z" } ] }, { "label": "fact", "text": "In Lisbon the rain is heavy and steady (3 to 6.5 mm an hour at each city station, 07:00 to 10:00); the wind is far below the warning (the airport observed 17 km/h and no gust at 11:00). IPMA's wind warning for Lisbon is orange to 21:00.", "src": [ { "name": "IPMA station observations", "url": "https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/observation/meteorology/stations/observations.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" }, { "name": "Lisbon airport METAR", "url": "https://aviationweather.gov/api/data/metar?ids=LPPT&hours=30&format=json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:26:40Z" } ] }, { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Nine in ten of the ECMWF ensemble's 51 forecasts bring the centre near or south of Lisbon, crossing off Lisbon at about 15:00, close to a modelled high water at about 15:10: rain at high tide is the hour to watch. These are shares of forecasts, not the chance of it happening; IPMA's warnings decide.", "src": [ { "name": "ECMWF ensemble via Open-Meteo (incident.datascience@)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/exposure/ensemble.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:57:02Z" }, { "name": "tide model (Open-Meteo Marine)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/exposure/tides.json", "read": "2026-11-11T11:52:44Z" } ] } ], "watch": [ { "at": "12:00", "label": "fact", "text": "In force from 12:00: orange sea for Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja and Faro (south-west waves 5 to 7 m, up to 13 m maximum, to 21:00), and red rain in four more districts (Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco, Portalegre).", "src": "IPMA warnings" }, { "at": "12:00–16:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Lisbon airport's forecast (TAF 11:00): at times south 20 kt gusting 35 (65 km/h) in rain; a 30% chance of thunderstorms with 40 kt gusting 55 (102 km/h).", "src": "Lisbon TAF" }, { "at": "12:00–15:00", "label": "evidence", "text": "CP suppresses four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge in the window it calls the most critical.", "src": "CP, via the press" }, { "at": "13:00", "label": "evidence", "text": "Madeira's schools reopen (closed in the morning by the regional civil protection).", "src": "SRPC Madeira, via the press" }, { "at": "about 15:00", "label": "hypothesis", "text": "The ensemble's median time for the centre to cross off Lisbon; high water at about 15:10 (1.25 m above mean sea level, a model). Model gusts at Lisbon in the ensemble: median 69 km/h, nine in ten below 85 km/h.", "src": "ECMWF ensemble and tide model (incident.datascience@)" }, { "at": "16:00–18:00", "label": "fact", "text": "TAF: wind turning west-north-west 12 kt by 18:00, no significant weather.", "src": "Lisbon TAF" }, { "at": "18:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Red rain warnings end in all eight districts.", "src": "IPMA warnings" }, { "at": "18:00–21:00", "label": "fact", "text": "TAF: at times west-north-west 17 kt gusting 27 (50 km/h).", "src": "Lisbon TAF" }, { "at": "21:00", "label": "fact", "text": "Lisbon's orange wind and orange sea warnings end; yellow sea (waves 4 to 5 m) to 03:00 Thursday. Faro's red wind ends.", "src": "IPMA warnings" }, { "at": "Thu 00:00–12:00", "label": "fact", "text": "No IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow on Thursday morning. IPMA's model: west wind, mean 15 to 24 km/h; showers, rain chance up to 92%.", "src": "IPMA warnings and IPMA's hourly model (run 07:56)" }, { "at": "pending", "label": "fact", "text": "Web Summit's word on Day 3 (Thursday): it \"aims to proceed as planned\", an aim, not yet a decision.", "src": "Web Summit, 10 Nov 19:09" } ], "signs": [ { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "The wind's direction at the airport: backing toward east while the pressure falls fits a centre passing south of Lisbon; a swing to north-west with rising pressure would mean it has passed.", "src": "incident.meteorologist@, 11:28" }, { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Thunderstorm cells (TCU or CB in the METAR): the TAF gives its strongest gusts only with thunderstorms, so a short, sharp spell is the case to watch, not a long blow.", "src": "our reading of the TAF" }, { "label": "hypothesis", "text": "Hourly rain above 6 mm at the city's stations around high water (about 15:10, modelled): the press reports the risk of rain and tide together hindering drainage in the big cities.", "src": "tide model; CNN Portugal live, 08:27" } ], "decided": [ { "label": "fact", "who": "Government of Portugal", "what": "Alert situation for the whole mainland, Wednesday 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services closed; outdoor events suspended.", "when": "10 Nov 12:10", "url": "https://portugal.gov.pt/", "row": "s-1110T1210" }, { "label": "fact", "who": "Web Summit", "what": "Day 2 (Wednesday) will not take place, on the government's formal advice; Day 3 (Thursday) \"aims to proceed as planned\".", "when": "10 Nov 19:09", "url": "https://websummit.com/blog/web-summit/important-event-update-2026/", "row": "s-1110T1909" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lisbon City Council (mayor)", "what": "All of Lisbon's road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too.", "when": "10 Nov 13:16 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/tunnels.json" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "CP and Infraestruturas de Portugal", "what": "Four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge suppressed, 12:00 to 15:00.", "when": "10 Nov 23:10 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/cp.json" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lusoponte", "what": "Vasco da Gama bridge limited to 100 km/h because of the weather.", "when": "11 Nov 09:24 (Lusa)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/timeline.md", "row": "s-1111T0957" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Carris (Lisbon buses and trams)", "what": "Service kept with priority to essential journeys; trams 12E, 15E, 18E, 24E, 25E and 28E interrupted; Graça funicular closed since 10:40; Web Summit shuttles cancelled. Fertagus trains: normal service, confirmed at 10:40.", "when": "read 11:52 at source (no update time on the page)", "url": "https://www.carris.pt/viaje/alteracoes-de-servico/alerta-circulacao/", "row": "s-1111T1157" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Transtejo Soflusa", "what": "River crossings between Lisbon and the south bank kept running from 05:00 (one crossing, Porto Brandão–Trafaria–Belém, reported suspended in the morning).", "when": "10 Nov 18:57; 11 Nov 05:44 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/ferries.json" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "TAP Air Portugal", "what": "Operations adjusted; tickets for travel to 11 Nov may be changed without penalty to flights up to 17 Nov.", "when": "10 Nov 16:09 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/tap.json" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Lisbon's hospitals", "what": "Wednesday's scheduled activity rescheduled (which hospitals: not stated).", "when": "10 Nov 18:29 (Lusa headline)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/hospitals.json" }, { "label": "evidence", "who": "Madeira's Regional Civil Protection (SRPC)", "what": "Schools closed Wednesday morning, reopening from 13:00. 205 occurrences to 09:00, none classed as serious.", "when": "10 Nov 11:26; 11 Nov 09:00 (press)", "url": "../incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/entities/madeira.json" } ], "compare": [ { "topic": "Rain, Lisbon", "official": "Red, 09:00–18:00: \"strong and persistent\"", "models": "TAF: rain all afternoon, heavy with a 30% thunderstorm chance 12:00–16:00", "obs": "3–6.5 mm an hour at the four city stations, 07:00–10:00; 15 to 24 mm in the five hours 06:00–10:00", "press": "Heavy rain about 11:00–15:00, easing after about 18:00 (radio, 10:38)", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "What is observed matches the red rain warning in timing and character.", "confidence": "HIGH" }, { "topic": "Wind, Lisbon", "official": "Orange, 09:00–21:00: gusts up to 120 km/h (lowered from red at 07:16)", "models": "TAF lowered twice: at times 65 km/h gusts, 30% chance of 102 km/h in thunderstorms; ECMWF ensemble gusts at Lisbon: median 69, 90th percentile 85 km/h", "obs": "Airport 17 km/h, no gust (11:00); highest gust since Tuesday 67 km/h (Tue 11:00)", "press": "Reports the lowered warning; some attribute more to IPMA than it wrote", "agree": "differ", "assessment": "So far far below the warning; the forecasts have come down toward the observations. Gusts near the warned strength would most likely come only in thunderstorms.", "confidence": "LOW" }, { "topic": "Worst window", "official": "Warnings overlap 12:00–18:00 (red rain, orange wind, orange sea)", "models": "TAF: strongest groups 12:00–16:00, quieter from 16:00–18:00", "obs": "Pressure 998 hPa at 11:00 and falling", "press": "11:00–15:00 (radio)", "agree": "mostly agree", "assessment": "The early afternoon, to about 16:00, is the window the sources share; the peak hour within it is not known.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "topic": "Track of the centre", "official": "Communiqué no. 2 (10 Nov 17:07): toward the mainland, \"high uncertainty in track and intensity\"", "models": "ECMWF ensemble (51 forecasts): 49% south of Lisbon, 41% near, 10% north; median crossing about 15:00", "obs": "Wind backing south-south-east to east-south-east with falling pressure", "press": "Track moved south, toward the Algarve (radio, 10:38; not IPMA in writing)", "agree": "mostly agree", "assessment": "North of Lisbon is now the outlier; near or south, as the observed wind and Faro's red wind suggest. Which of the two is open.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "topic": "Sea and tide", "official": "Orange sea, 12:00–21:00: waves 5–7 m, up to 13 m; yellow to 03:00", "models": "IPMA's model: sea 3–3.5 m Thursday morning; tide model: high water about 15:10 (1.25 m), next about 03:10 Thursday", "obs": "No gauge or buoy in our data; Instituto Hidrográfico's official table needs an account (not read)", "press": "Rain at high tide may hinder drainage (live blog, 08:27)", "agree": "no conflict", "assessment": "High water falls inside the red rain window; the warning is the written word on the sea.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" }, { "topic": "Madeira", "official": "Red rain to 06:00, then orange; orange wind to 12:00 (130 km/h in the mountains)", "models": "n/a", "obs": "249.5 mm in six hours at Areeiro (01:00–06:00); airport wind dropped from 89 km/h gusts at 07:00 to 13 km/h at 08:00", "press": "Regional president: 479 mm somewhere on the island; 205 occurrences, none serious", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "The worst has passed Madeira; the risk now is what the rain left (slopes, streams), which only the regional civil protection can state.", "confidence": "HIGH" }, { "topic": "End of the event", "official": "Lisbon: rain to 18:00, wind and sea to 21:00, yellow sea to 03:00; nothing above yellow on Thursday", "models": "TAF: no significant weather from about 18:00; showers on Thursday", "obs": "n/a yet", "press": "Easing after about 18:00", "agree": "agree", "assessment": "Thursday morning looks like showers and a westerly wind, not a storm; Web Summit's Day 3 word is still awaited.", "confidence": "MEDIUM" } ], "gaps": [ { "what": "Precedents: Leslie (2018), Elsa (2019) and later storms, highest gust, incidents, customers without power", "who": "incident.datascience@ and incident.researcher@", "state": "not yet in our data" }, { "what": "Tides, official: Instituto Hidrográfico's table for Lisbon, Cascais and Funchal", "who": "incident.datascience@ (Instituto Hidrográfico)", "state": "this edition uses a model (Open-Meteo Marine); IH's table needs an account and was not read" }, { "what": "Power cuts: customers without power", "who": "incident.datascience@ (E-REDES)", "state": "not yet in our data" } ], "exposure": true, "change": "What changed since edition 1 (11:40): who is exposed (residents under each level, hour by hour; Lisbon's municipalities and 49 squares), the ECMWF ensemble's shares of tracks, a modelled tide (high water about 15:10 at Lisbon, inside the red rain window), and Carris and Fertagus read at their own pages. IPMA's warnings are unchanged since 07:16." }