{"about":"Where the storm's centre crosses 9.5 W (off Lisbon) in each of the 51 ECMWF ensemble forecasts, grouped north / near / south of Lisbon, and the spread of model gusts at Lisbon hour by hour. SHARES OF FORECASTS, NOT THE CHANCE OF IT HAPPENING. Not a forecast of ours and not a warning: IPMA issues the warnings.","label":"hypothesis: our reading of a model ensemble (ECMWF IFS ENS 0.25°, via Open-Meteo)","source":"https://ensemble-api.open-meteo.com/v1/ensemble?latitude=35.5,35.75,36,36.25,36.5,36.75,37,37.25,37.5,37.75,38,38.25,38.5,38.75,39,39.25,39.5,39.75,40,40.25,40.5,40.75,41,41.25,41.5,38.72&longitude=-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.5,-9.14&hourly=pressure_msl,wind_gusts_10m&models=ecmwf_ifs025&timezone=GMT&wind_speed_unit=kmh&start_date=2026-11-11&end_date=2026-11-12","source_name":"Open-Meteo Ensemble API, model ecmwf_ifs025 (ECMWF IFS ensemble: control + 50 members), the latest run Open-Meteo held at read time","licence":"CC BY 4.0: ECMWF open data, served by Open-Meteo (credit both)","read_utc":"2026-11-11T11:57:02Z","method":"For each member: mean-sea-level pressure along 9.5 W from 35.5 to 41.5 N (every 0.25°), each hour; the crossing is the hour when the lowest pressure on that line is deepest, and its latitude (refined by a parabola). North: crossing above 39.2 N; near: 38.2–39.2 N; south: below 38.2 N (bands ours, about 55 km either side of Lisbon). Gusts: the model's 10 m gust at the grid cell nearest Lisbon (38.72 N, 9.14 W), km/h; a 25 km cell smooths hills and river: station gusts differ. The ensemble's native step here is 3 hours (Open-Meteo interpolates between), so crossing times are to the nearest 3 h; lisbon_max_gust is over the whole window read (today and tomorrow, UTC).","confidence":"MEDIUM for the north/near/south split (a clear low on a 25 km grid); LOW for gust values at a point. at_box_edge = true means the lowest pressure sat at the edge of the line (the centre may be outside 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