# Timeline (UTC, 10 to 11 November 2026)

Newest first (from 18:58, at the incident conductor's takeover). Facts and evidence carry their source; anything unofficial says so.

| UTC | Signal or decision | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 00:15 | analysis (incident.media@, labelled): IPMA's move of Lisbon's red rain to 09:00 (sent 21:23) had not been reported by any article title or live-blog entry we could read by 00:15. Limits: matched by title only; SIC, JN, TSF and Renascença refuse automated reads. Who was first on the other facts: red wind (IPMA 07:18): DN live 08:05; Day 2 off (19:09): ECO and TEK 19:41 | `research/media/first-on-each-fact.json`, `ranking.md` (f487bfb) |
| 11 Nov, 00:00 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, hypothesis, confidence low to medium): the official and model data are consistent with the centre passing very close to Lisbon at about 17:00 to 18:00 Wednesday, more likely just south of it (met.no's pressure minimum 986.7 hPa at 17:00 to 18:00 and a 160° wind swing in an hour; the guidance has moved). Against: IPMA's red wind unchanged, its track text already includes Lisbon, no communiqué no. 3, point models move. It does not lower the danger: the worst moves toward the passage, about 16:00 to 19:00, and a lull near the centre is not the end. Wednesday tests it: wind backing east then north and pressure near 987 hPa means it passed south | `data/weather/analysis.md` section 7 (d6e8aace1) |
| 10 Nov, 23:58 | analysis (incident.media@, labelled): the press on Day 2 after Web Summit's 19:09 page: ECO and TEK 19:41 (32 min later), DN 19:49, Lusa via Notícias ao Minuto 20:01, Observador 20:08, Euronews 20:29, Expresso 20:39; Web Summit's Bluesky still silent on Day 2 at 23:51; 87 of 212 press items read carry Lusa's by-line, across 6 outlets. Limits: six outlets refuse automated reads and are absent, not silent | `research/media/coverage.json`, `ranking.md` (incident.media@, 96ff00c) |
| 10 Nov, 23:54 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): worst window now 09:00 to 18:00, the core 12:00 to 18:00 when both reds overlap; over by 21:00. From IPMA's own issue times (CAP): red wind was sent Tue 07:18 (not 08:31 as the press had it): 28.7 h ahead; red rain 19.5 h; the move to 09:00, 11.6 h | `data/weather/analysis.md` section 6 |
| 10 Nov, 23:53 | **IPMA moved Lisbon's red rain warning three hours earlier: Wednesday 09:00 to 18:00** (was 12:00 to 18:00; supersedes s-1110T1742); orange rain now 00:00 to 09:00; red wind unchanged (12:00 to 21:00). IPMA sent the change at 21:23 (its CAP message); its open-data feed showed it only from the 23:51 read | [IPMA warnings open data](https://api.ipma.pt/open-data/forecast/warnings/warnings_www.json), read at source by the lead 23:53; MeteoAlarm's CAP feed (`data/weather/cap.json`, incident.meteorologist@, 169445ff3) |
| 10 Nov, 23:53 | No post on Web Summit's blog after "Important event update" (19:09); nothing new on public Mastodon since 21:45 | [websummit.com/blog](https://websummit.com/blog/), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 6) |
| 10 Nov, 23:52 | signal: Lisbon airport: ANA expects flight cancellations on Wednesday ("Operations at Lisbon, Faro and Madeira airports will be affected") | [Madeira Island News](https://www.madeiraislandnews.com/2026/11/ana-anticipates-flight-cancellations-at-lisbon-faro-and-madeira-airports.html), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 6); ANA's own notice not read by us |
| 10 Nov, 23:50 | signal (unofficial, unverified): a public weather page on Facebook shows the storm's track further south than first forecast, toward Lisbon and just south of it; the image is undated and the page is not IPMA. To compare with IPMA's next communiqué; IPMA's own text keeps "entre Sines e o Cabo Carvoeiro" with high uncertainty | watcher@web-summit.jose, at Jose's word (SGit-AI__Website__Web-Summit 6745608, `people/jose/watcher/signals/2026-11-10-storm-track.md`); not opened by us |
| 10 Nov, 23:24 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): the TAF's peak (09:00 to 16:00) and IPMA's model peak (19:00 to 20:00) disagree, so the peak is widened back to 12:00 to 18:00; end 21:00; Thursday morning behind the storm, medium confidence; a weaker airport forecast is not a downgrade of IPMA's warning | `data/weather/analysis.md` section 5 |
| 10 Nov, 23:23 | The first airport TAF covering Thursday (issued 23:00) is weaker than 17:00's: Wed 09:00 to 16:00 at times 30 kt gusting 45 (83 km/h); 30% chance (was 40%) of 58 kt thunderstorm gusts 10:00 to 18:00; west 12 kt from 18:00 to 20:00; Thursday 00:00 to 06:00 west 12 kt, no gusts. IPMA's red warnings unchanged | LPPT TAF (IPMA, via NOAA's Aviation Weather), `data/weather/airport.json` (incident.meteorologist@, a63ac9696) |
| 10 Nov, 21:53 | No further statement from Web Summit (social.watch@'s sweep 4); still open: Wednesday's talks, the PITCH semi-final (when it was set is in conflict: Wednesday 17:00 in social.watch@'s summary, unsourced there; Thursday in Tech Times' preview of 9 Nov), side events (Web Summit's own Night Summit still listed for Wednesday 18:00 to 00:00, no notice, 22:05), tickets | social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, sweep 4 (21:51 to 21:53); incident.researcher@ (22:05) |
| 10 Nov, 21:41 | signal: a speaker says in public that Day 2 is cancelled and his talks and press conference stay on Thursday (the first sign that Thursday's programme holds for some speakers) | [Jon S. von Tetzchner on Mastodon](https://social.vivaldi.net/@jon/117594316167337659), via social.watch@ (sweep 4) |
| 10 Nov, 21:32 | Web Summit's blog listing shows the update post modified 20:06; its text unchanged on Day 2 and Day 3 ("aims to proceed") | websummit.com, incident.dev@'s 2-min watch (`data/watch/websummit.json`) |
| 10 Nov, 21:18 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): IPMA's hourly model changed its values (same 07:55 stamp): Wednesday's strongest mean wind now 23 km/h at 20:00 (was 49 at 18:00); the swing to north 18:00; peak most likely 17:00 to 20:00 (was 15:00 to 19:00); worst window 12:00 to 18:00 and end 21:00 unchanged; IPMA's red warnings unchanged and outrank one model | `data/weather/analysis.md` section 4 (1b936db20) |
| 10 Nov, 21:15 | **The incident moves to its own site: https://storm-charles.promptugal.news** (this repository); first push to served 23 s (v0.1.2), against 3 to 10 minutes on web-summit.sgit.ai | incident.conductor@, at Dinis's word |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 | signal: the cancellation in the international press (PT and EN); coast and riverside access prohibited Wednesday; nothing on refunds or PITCH | [Euronews EN](https://www.euronews.com/2026/11/10/web-summit-lisbon-day-2-cancelled-due-to-storm-charles), [PT](https://pt.euronews.com/2026/11/10/portugal-web-summit-cancela-segundo-dia-em-lisboa-devido-a-tempestade-charles), via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 20:08 | signal: organisers will contact those affected directly; not said whether Wednesday's programme is cancelled or moved (N6 still open) | [Observador](https://observador.pt/2026/11/10/web-summit-cancela-programacao-de-quarta-feira-devido-ao-mau-tempo/), via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 19:52 | Checked by the lead: websummit.com home and news list carry no notice of Day 2 (the notice was already up at /blog/web-summit/ since 19:09, a path we did not check) | websummit.com, read 19:52 by incident.conductor@ |
| 10 Nov, 19:49 | signal: Thursday resumes "if the weather allows" (DN's wording; RTP's "as planned, after the storm"; the organisers' own page: "aims to proceed") | [Diário de Notícias](https://www.dn.pt/sociedade/tempestade-fora-cancelamento-do-segundo-dia-da-web-summit), via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 19:46 | signal: organisers will hold Thursday "conforme planeado, após a passagem da tempestade Charles"; people affected will be contacted directly | [RTP, live](https://www.rtp.pt/noticias/pais/depressao-charles-esperado-agravamento-significativo-das-condicoes-meteorologicas_e1778024), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:45 | signal: organisers cancel all of Wednesday's activities (coastal flooding, wind on outdoor structures, transport), after coordinating with the authorities | [Diário de Notícias, live](https://www.dn.pt/sociedade/proteo-civil-alerta-para-chuva-forte-e-rajadas-at-120-kmh-governo-pede-que-se-evitem-sadas-de-casa), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:42 | Public: **"Após recomendação do Governo, Paddy suspende Web Summit na quarta-feira"**; the organisers quoted: the government "informou formalmente a Web Summit" of the risks | [Jornal de Negócios, live, 19:42](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), read 19:52 by incident.conductor@ (also by social.watch@ at 19:53) |
| 10 Nov, 19:41 | signal: Web Summit closed on Wednesday after talks with the government, ANEPC and PSP; the mayor calls it the most sensible decision | [ECO](https://eco.sapo.pt/2026/11/10/web-summit-vai-encerrar-esta-quarta-feira-devido-ao-mau-tempo/), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:38 | **DECISION: Web Summit's Day 2, Wednesday 11 November, will not take place.** The government "formally advised" it (tidal flooding, public transport, high winds on external structures), after talks with the government, ANEPC and PSP; **Day 3, Thursday 12 November, aimed to go ahead as planned** | Web Summit's email to attendees (no public URL), relayed by weather@PrompTugal.vicky (b23e846, 19:48) and conductor@web-summit.dinis (19:52) |
| 10 Nov, 19:09 | **PRIMARY: Web Summit's own page, "Important event update": "Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th) will not take place"; "Web Summit aims to proceed with Day 3 (Thursday, November 12) as planned, following the passing of Storm Charles"; reasons: tidal flooding, disruption to public transport, high winds on external structures; "Web Summit will communicate directly with those impacted".** Under /blog/web-summit/, not in the news list; we did not watch that path | [websummit.com](https://websummit.com/blog/web-summit/important-event-update-2026/) (page data: published 19:09:00, modified 19:25:44; found by social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, read at source by the lead 20:58) |
| 10 Nov, 19:05 | No Web Summit decision on Wednesday: websummit.com (home, /news/, sitemap), its official Bluesky (last post 17:36, "wrap on Day 1") and Jornal de Negócios live (last entry 18:24) | incident.researcher@ (message to the lead, 19:06) |
| 10 Nov, 19:05 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): worst window Wed 12:00 to 18:00, peak most likely ~15:00 to 19:00 around the wind's swing to north-west, easing but dangerous to 21:00; red wind was known ~27.5 h ahead; confidence medium on the window, low on the peak | `data/weather/analysis.md` (from IPMA warnings, communiqué no. 2, LPPT TAF, IPMA model, read 19:01) |
| 10 Nov, 19:01 | No Web Summit decision on Wednesday found (organiser channels readable without a login) | incident.researcher@, `data/decisions/` (145a2b8) |
| 10 Nov, 18:58 | **Lead handed over:** incident.conductor@web-summit.dinis takes the lead of WS-214 from conductor@web-summit.dinis, at Dinis's word (team/incidents/BRIEF.md); the timeline is kept newest first from here | this folder; BRIEF.md |
| 10 Nov, 18:53 | Organisers checked again: no decision on Wednesday; their last line is still "assessing with ANEPC and PSP" | The Portugal News (updated 14:29), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 18:36 | Vicky's weather desk full check: IPMA's two red warnings for Lisbon unchanged since 17:42 (wind 12:00 to 21:00, rain 12:00 to 18:00); no Web Summit change | `desks/weather-vicky/live.md` (snapshot `data/2026-11-10T1836Z.json`) |
| 10 Nov, ~18:35 | **Incident declared** (P1, run on account A) at Dinis's word | this folder |
| 10 Nov, 18:25 | signal: no organiser statement after the government's recommendation (the live blog's last update read) | [Jornal de Negócios, live](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 18:06 | signal (unofficial): an attendee post says the event is "most likely" closed tomorrow; speculation, not an announcement | [Mastodon post](https://mastodon.social/@nico42/117593473112494351), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 17:53 | signal: **the government recommends suspending Web Summit on Wednesday; the decision rests with the organisers** | [Jornal de Negócios, live](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 17:43 | Web Summit: no change to Wednesday's programme announced on its homepage or news page | websummit.com, read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 17:42 | IPMA raises Lisbon's rain warning to red, Wednesday 12:00 to 18:00 | IPMA open data, read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 17:07 | signal: water enters a pavilion between halls 4 and 5; participants leave early | [Jornal de Negócios, live](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, ~17:00 | Dinis: the storm is our case study (a dynamic team, the decision graph) | PrompTugal guidance 2026-11-10-the-storm-as-our-case-study.md |
| 10 Nov, 15:19 | signal: the storm leaves Web Summit with a thin audience | [Jornal de Negócios, live](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 | signal: Web Summit in doubt; Tagus bridges limited to 60 km/h; Lisbon tunnels closed from midnight; Metro keeps running | [TEK Notícias](https://tek.sapo.pt/noticias/ciencia/artigos/depressao-charles-web-summit-sob-duvida-pontes-do-tejo-com-limite-de-60-km-h-e-tuneis-de-lisboa-fechados/), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 14:23 | IPMA red warning for wind, Lisbon district, Wednesday 12:00 to 21:00 (first read by the newsroom) | S41; `desks/weather-vicky/live.md` |
| 10 Nov, 13:19 | signal: **Lisbon's mayor: "Tudo indica que a Web Summit não poderá funcionar amanhã"**; the decision is the Interior Ministry's and the organisers' | [Jornal Económico](https://jornaleconomico.sapo.pt/noticias/web-summit-fechada-na-quarta-feira-anuncia-autarquia-de-lisboa/), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 12:45 | signal: Web Summit's organisers following the alerts with ANEPC and PSP; no sign yet of cancelling Wednesday | [Jornal de Negócios, live](https://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/economia/detalhe/fiquem-em-casa-todos-os-que-puderem-escolas-e-servicos-publicos-encerrados-amanha-siga-ao-minuto), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 12:10 | The government declares an alert situation for the mainland on Wednesday, 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services close; outdoor events suspended | portugal.gov.pt (page dated 12:10; S41 updated with it at 17:27), read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 08:46 | signal: IPMA expects the storm earlier, Wednesday morning; Lisbon among the hardest hit; avoid unnecessary travel (Lusa) | [AWAY (IOL), via Lusa](https://away.iol.pt/aviso-vermelho-ipma/vento/alerta-vermelho-ipma-admite-cenario-semelhante-ao-da-tempestade-kristin-e-aponta-lisboa-como-uma-das-regioes-mais-atingidas/20261110/6af2d9fd0cf2cb2507aa81b4), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |

Signals from social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (the incident's signals desk, confirmed by Dinis at about 18:42 UTC): PrompTugal__News__Website `board/team/social.watch/signals/2026-11-11-the-storm.md`. Sweep 1 ran 18:45 to 18:50 UTC (its first labels said 19:20; corrected by social.watch@ in df4adcd7d). Organisers checked again at 18:53 UTC: no decision; their last line is still "assessing with ANEPC and PSP" (The Portugal News, updated 14:29).