{
  "about": "A story as a small graph: claims, each with its label, who said it, when, and the rows and data fields that support it. The page is generated from this file by tools/stories-build.mjs; nothing here is new reporting. See stories/grammar.md.",
  "id": "madeira-warned-against-observed",
  "title": "Madeira: warned against observed",
  "standfirst": "Storm Charles reached Madeira first. This sets what IPMA wrote and warned for the island beside what its own stations measured on Tuesday night, hour by hour, as far as the data room holds it.",
  "state": "developing",
  "incident": "2026-11-10-storm-charles",
  "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis",
  "written_utc": "2026-11-11T02:31Z",
  "updated": "2026-11-11T11:56Z",
  "based_on_read_utc": "2026-11-11T10:22:42Z",
  "warnings_in_force": {
    "about": "The official warnings a weather story states first: IPMA's red warnings for Madeira's areas, resolved from the data room when the page is built and read again in the reader's browser.",
    "title": "IPMA's red warnings for Madeira",
    "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/warnings.json",
    "list": "red_and_orange_elsewhere.items",
    "areas": [
      "MCN",
      "MCS",
      "MRM",
      "MPS"
    ],
    "levels": [
      "red"
    ]
  },
  "sections": [
    {
      "id": "warned",
      "title": "What IPMA wrote and warned",
      "claims": [
        "m1",
        "m2",
        "m3",
        "m4",
        "m5",
        "m14"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "measured",
      "title": "What IPMA's stations measured",
      "claims": [
        "m6",
        "m7",
        "m8",
        "m11",
        "m15",
        "m16",
        "m17"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "against",
      "title": "One against the other",
      "claims": [
        "m9",
        "m10"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "island",
      "title": "On the island",
      "claims": [
        "m12",
        "m13",
        "m18"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "m1",
      "text": "IPMA's communiqué no. 2, on Tuesday at 17:07, said Madeira's weather would worsen \"entre o final do dia de hoje, dia 10, e a manhã de dia 11\", with rain \"podendo acumular valores superiores a 100 mm em 12 h em alguns locais, em especial nas regiões montanhosas\" and gusts \"até 100 km/h, podendo ser da ordem de 140 km/h nas terras altas\".",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, communiqué no. 2",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-10T17:07Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-10T19:01:07Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1110T1707b"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/communiques.json",
          "field": "items[issued_utc=2026-11-10T17:07Z].text_pt",
          "contains": [
            "entre o final do dia de hoje, dia 10, e a manhã de dia 11",
            "podendo acumular valores superiores a 100 mm em 12 h em alguns locais, em especial nas regiões montanhosas",
            "rajadas até 100 km/h, podendo ser da ordem de 140 km/h nas terras altas"
          ]
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m2",
      "text": "The red rain warnings for Madeira's mountains and south coast were sent on Tuesday at 06:14:54, for 21:00 Tuesday to 06:00 Wednesday: \"Chuva, por vezes forte e persistente\".",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, warnings (CAP messages through MeteoAlarm)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-10T06:14:54Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T02:22:46Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1231].sent_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-10T06:14:54+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1231].onset_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-10T21:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1232].sent_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-10T06:14:54+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "edge",
          "id": "ipma-madeira-red"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m3",
      "text": "The north coast's rain warning was made red at 20:52:39 on Tuesday, eight minutes before its window opened at 21:00.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, warning (CAP message through MeteoAlarm)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-10T20:52:39Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T02:22:46Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110205239.MD-10-1237].sent_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-10T20:52:39+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110205239.MD-10-1237].onset_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-10T21:00:00+00:00"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m4",
      "text": "For the mountains IPMA also sent a red wind warning at 06:14:54: \"Rajadas até 140 km/h\", from 00:00 to 06:00 on Wednesday.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, warning (CAP message through MeteoAlarm)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-10T06:14:54Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T02:22:46Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-01-668].onset_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T00:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0642"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m5",
      "text": "No rain warning covering Tuesday 12:00 to 21:00 for the mountains or the south coast was found, in the CAP feed or in the press. The data room's own caution: \"This is not proof that none was ever issued\", because the feed drops the messages a newer one replaces.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "incident.meteorologist@web-summit.dinis, reporting a search of IPMA's feeds (a search result, not IPMA's statement)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T02:00Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-10T23:50Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "earlier_warnings.answer",
          "contains": [
            "No rain warning for MRM or MCS covering Tue 12:00-21:00 was found",
            "This is not proof that none was ever issued"
          ]
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "earlier_warnings.items[0].finding"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m6",
      "text": "Measured: 249.5 mm of rain in six consecutive hourly values at IPMA's station Areeiro, the hours labelled 01:00 to 06:00 on Wednesday: its largest six so far.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, station observations (station 1210973)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:00Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T07:38:35Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0727"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 249.5,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].max_6h_rain.hours_labelled",
          "expect": [
            "2026-11-11T01:00Z",
            "2026-11-11T06:00Z"
          ],
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m7",
      "text": "Hour by hour at Areeiro: 29.7 mm (labelled 20:00), 47.6 (21:00), 44.7 (22:00), 25.4 (23:00), 33.5 (00:00), 49.6 (01:00), 30.0 (02:00), 48.9 (03:00), 33.7 (04:00), 29.3 (05:00), 58.0 (06:00) 44.3 (07:00), 8.9 (08:00) and 0.6 mm (09:00): 484.2 mm in fourteen hourly values. The largest hour is the one labelled 06:00, the last of the red window; the rain went on for an hour after it under the orange warning, then fell to 8.9 mm in the hour labelled 08:00 and 0.6 mm in the one labelled 09:00, when the orange rain warning ended.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, station observations (station 1210973)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T09:00Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T10:22:42Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T20:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 29.7,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T21:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 47.6,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T22:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 44.7,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T23:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 25.4,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T00:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 33.5,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T01:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 49.6,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T02:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 30,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T03:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 48.9,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T04:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 33.7,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T05:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 29.3,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T06:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 58,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 44.3,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 8.9,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T09:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 0.6
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T12:00Z]",
          "note": "A tripwire: when the hour labelled 12:00 arrives (the orange wind warning ends then), the total is given again.",
          "absent": true
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m8",
      "text": "Four more stations measured over 100 mm in six hours: São Vicente 141.5, Santo da Serra 130.4, Pico Alto 126.8 and Pico do Areeiro 123.9 mm.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, station observations",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T08:00Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T08:45:09Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210967].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 141.5
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210975].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 130.4
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210974].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 123.9
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210972].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 126.8
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m9",
      "text": "Against the communiqué: its figure was more than 100 mm in 12 hours in places, above all in the mountains. Five stations passed 100 mm in six hours, and Areeiro 249.5. The communiqué's wording has no upper figure, so the measurements fall inside its words, at about two and a half times its number in half its time at one station.",
      "label": "fact",
      "derived": true,
      "said_by": "this desk, setting the communiqué beside the station values",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T07:38:35Z",
      "derived_from": [
        "m1",
        "m6",
        "m8"
      ],
      "supports": []
    },
    {
      "id": "m10",
      "text": "Against the warning's hours: at Areeiro the heavy rain is in the values labelled 20:00 and 21:00 (29.7 and 47.6 mm), and the red window opened at 21:00. If a label is the hour ending at that time, as the data room infers, 89.2 mm of the 133.9 mm labelled 17:00 to 22:00 had fallen by the time the red window opened; if it is the hour starting, 41.6 mm.",
      "label": "hypothesis",
      "derived": true,
      "confidence": "the sums are arithmetic; which of the two holds rests on the hour-label reading, which IPMA does not document (the data room's inference: hour ending)",
      "said_by": "this desk, adding the station's hourly values under the data room's reading of the hour labels",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T02:38:08Z",
      "derived_from": [
        "m2",
        "m7"
      ],
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "hour_label.our_inference.reading",
          "expect": "hour ENDING at the label, in UTC"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "hour_label.ipma_says"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T17:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 0.8,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T18:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 4,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-10T19:00Z].rain_mm",
          "expect": 7.1,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/analysis.json",
          "field": "updates[written_utc=2026-11-11T01:55Z].madeira_rain_fact.mm_6h",
          "expect": 133.9
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m11",
      "text": "The wind cannot be set against its warning from IPMA's stations: their feed gives mean wind, not gusts. The highest hourly mean in it is 93.2 km/h at Areeiro, labelled 02:00 on Wednesday. Gusts are reported only at the airports: at 02:30 Madeira airport reported 67 km/h gusting 98 km/h, the highest gust in the last 30 hours of its reports. The airport is a point on the south-east coast, not a warning area.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, station observations",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T02:30Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T02:38:08Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0238"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T02:00Z].wind_mean_kmh",
          "expect": 93.2,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "observed_gusts.ipma_station_feeds",
          "contains": [
            "mean wind only"
          ],
          "read_field": "observed_gusts.read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "observed_gusts.where_gusts_are",
          "contains": [
            "METAR LPMA 110100Z 20032G42KT"
          ],
          "read_field": "observed_gusts.read_utc"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m12",
      "text": "What was decided on the island before the rain: schools closed for Wednesday morning (announced Tuesday 11:26), three cruise calls at Funchal cancelled (12:33), the airport's operations \"conditioned\" (18:04).",
      "label": "evidence",
      "said_by": "Madeira's civil protection, the port authority and ANA, as reported by Observador's and Jornal de Negócios' live blogs",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-10T18:04Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T01:35Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "edge",
          "id": "madeira-schools"
        },
        {
          "kind": "edge",
          "id": "apram-cruises"
        },
        {
          "kind": "edge",
          "id": "madeira-airport-conditioned"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m13",
      "text": "On effects the data room holds what the press reports, not a count read at source. DN Madeira, at 02:10, gave the regional civil protection's count as 71 occurrences between 20:00 on Tuesday and 02:00 on Wednesday: 22 floodings, 13 landslides, 7 fallen trees; Machico 20, Santa Cruz 18. Lusa, in a post at 04:42, gave 99 occurrences and said electricity had been restored; the row that holds it gives no period for the 99. The service's own site carried no count when it was read at 03:51; the count reaches the press through a platform that is not public.",
      "label": "evidence",
      "said_by": "Madeira's regional civil protection, as reported by DN Madeira and carried by SAPO, and by Lusa (not read at the service itself)",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T05:41Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0541"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0351"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0233"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "research/weather-sites/rereads.json",
          "field": "rereads[read=2026-11-11T01:29Z].changed_in_the_coverage[who=Correio da Manhã / CMTV].what",
          "contains": [
            "Inundações e derrocadas em Machico"
          ],
          "url_field": "rereads[read=2026-11-11T01:29Z].changed_in_the_coverage[who=Correio da Manhã / CMTV].source"
        }
      ],
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T02:10Z"
    },
    {
      "id": "m14",
      "text": "The red warnings ended at 06:00 on Wednesday, as IPMA had scheduled them: none was shortened, extended or raised in the messages we hold. Orange followed: rain to 09:00 in the three areas, and for the mountains wind with \"Rajadas até 130 km/h\" to 12:00.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "IPMA, warnings (open data and its warnings page)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:00Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T06:25:17Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0625"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1231].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1232].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110205239.MD-10-1237].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-01-668].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1234].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T09:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json",
          "field": "other_messages[identifier=2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-01-667].expires_utc",
          "expect": "2026-11-11T12:00:00+00:00"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0642"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m15",
      "text": "An IPMA meteorologist, speaking to Lusa (published 06:28), is reported as saying gusts above 130 km/h were measured in Madeira's highlands: \"tendo sido registado rajadas que ultrapassaram os 130 quilómetros por hora nas terras altas\", with no station and no time. The same article gives 130 km/h as the forecast of the orange warning to 12:00, and rain \"em seis horas que ultrapassaram os 240 milímetros\". This is the press reporting IPMA's spoken word, not read by us at IPMA: its public station feed carries no gusts. The rain figure is now in IPMA's open data: Areeiro's 249.5 mm in the six hours labelled 01:00 to 06:00. In the data we hold, the highest gust measured is the airport's 98 km/h at 02:30.",
      "label": "evidence",
      "said_by": "an IPMA meteorologist, as reported by Lusa (carried by Notícias ao Minuto); not read at IPMA",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:28Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T06:37Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0642"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].hourly[time_utc=2026-11-11T02:00Z].wind_mean_kmh",
          "expect": 93.2,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0238"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json",
          "field": "stations[id=1210973].max_6h_rain.mm",
          "expect": 249.5,
          "read_field": "stations[id=1210973].read_utc"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0727"
        }
      ],
      "qualified_by": [
        "m11",
        "m6"
      ],
      "voice": true
    },
    {
      "id": "m16",
      "text": "At Madeira airport the wind dropped within an hour on Wednesday morning: south-west 69 km/h gusting 89 km/h at 07:00, 41 km/h gusting 63 at 07:30, then north-east 13 km/h with no gust reported at 08:00, and north 22 km/h at 08:30. The pressure was lowest at 06:30, 991 hPa, and had risen to 995 hPa by 08:00.",
      "label": "fact",
      "said_by": "Madeira airport's weather reports (METAR LPMA), read through NOAA's Aviation Weather",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T08:30Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T08:45:09Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:00Z].wind_kmh",
          "expect": 69
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:00Z].gust_kmh",
          "expect": 89
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:30Z].wind_kmh",
          "expect": 41
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:30Z].gust_kmh",
          "expect": 63
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:00Z].wind_kmh",
          "expect": 13
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:00Z].wind_dir",
          "expect": 50
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:30Z].wind_kmh",
          "expect": 22
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T06:30Z].pressure_hpa",
          "expect": 991
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:00Z].pressure_hpa",
          "expect": 995
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0822"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m17",
      "text": "What that swing was is a hypothesis, and it has moved. At 08:22 our meteorologist read it as the storm's centre passing close to Madeira airport between about 07:30 and 08:00. At 09:50 it wrote that one centre could not pass Madeira then and reach Lisbon, 966 km away, by 13:00 to 15:00 without moving at 140 to 160 km/h, so the swing was most likely a separate feature: consistent with the \"two centres\" the press attributes to IPMA, not proof of them. IPMA has put nothing in writing about two centres, and no track of the centre from IPMA is in the data room.",
      "label": "hypothesis",
      "confidence": "medium (observations and distance; not IPMA in writing)",
      "said_by": "incident.meteorologist@, analysis (data/weather/analysis.md, section 11)",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T09:50Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T09:45Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0822"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T07:30Z].wind_dir",
          "expect": 230
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/airport-madeira.json",
          "field": "metars[time_utc=2026-11-11T08:00Z].wind_dir",
          "expect": 50
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T0941"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/analysis.json",
          "field": "updates[written_utc=2026-11-11T09:50Z].two_centres_confidence",
          "expect": "medium (observations and distance; not IPMA in writing)"
        },
        {
          "kind": "data",
          "file": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/analysis.json",
          "field": "updates[written_utc=2026-11-11T09:50Z].analysis",
          "contains": [
            "Madeira's swing most likely a separate feature"
          ]
        }
      ],
      "qualified_by": [
        "m16"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "m18",
      "text": "The first count given in public by the regional government: Madeira's regional president, presenting at the regional civil protection service, gave 205 occurrences to 09:00 on Wednesday, with 542 responders and 216 vehicles, and said none was considered serious, as DN Madeira reported at 09:30. He gave \"479 milímetros de precipitação em 12 horas\", against 387 mm on 20 February 2010, most critical between 02:00 and 03:00. Neither the station nor the twelve hours are named, so it is not established that this is Areeiro, where the twelve values labelled 20:00 to 07:00 sum to 474.7 mm. This is the regional press reporting; nothing was read at the service's own site. A later count in the press: SAPO's title has 235 occurrences in Madeira (row s-1111T1135); its source and hour are not given in the title.",
      "label": "evidence",
      "said_by": "Madeira's regional president, as reported by DN Madeira; checked by incident.researcher@; not read at the civil protection service",
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T09:30Z",
      "read_utc": "2026-11-11T10:07Z",
      "supports": [
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T1007"
        },
        {
          "kind": "row",
          "id": "s-1111T1135"
        }
      ],
      "qualified_by": [
        "m7",
        "m13"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "not_known": [
    {
      "text": "What falls after the hour labelled 09:00 on Wednesday (0.6 mm at Areeiro), now that the orange rain warning has ended: the next reads.",
      "watch": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json"
    },
    {
      "text": "Whether a station's hour label is the hour ending or starting: IPMA does not document it. Sentence m10 gives both readings.",
      "watch": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json"
    },
    {
      "text": "Which warning area each station belongs to: IPMA publishes no table assigning a station to a warning area, so no station is assigned to \"mountains\" or \"coast\" here."
    },
    {
      "text": "The gusts in the mountains, at source: IPMA's public station feed has mean wind only, and the one gust source we read, Madeira airport, is not in a mountain area. Gusts above 130 km/h in the highlands are reported by Lusa from an IPMA meteorologist, with no station or time; the warned 140 km/h is not checked against a measurement we can read.",
      "watch": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/madeira.json"
    },
    {
      "text": "Whether a rain warning for Tuesday afternoon ever existed for the mountains or the south coast: none was found; the feed drops replaced messages.",
      "watch": "incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json"
    },
    {
      "text": "Harm to people: nothing in the data room. Damage: counts of occurrences as reported by the press (71 to 02:00 by DN Madeira; 99 by Lusa at 04:42), not read at the regional civil protection, whose site carried none at 03:51."
    },
    {
      "text": "The regional civil protection service's own warnings: not in the data room."
    }
  ],
  "record": [
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T02:31Z",
      "what": "First telling, on the data read at 02:22:46 UTC (station hours to 01:00): 13 sentences.",
      "claims_added": [
        "m1",
        "m2",
        "m3",
        "m4",
        "m5",
        "m6",
        "m7",
        "m8",
        "m9",
        "m10",
        "m11",
        "m12",
        "m13"
      ],
      "claims_changed": [],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T03:00Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 02:38:08 UTC (station hours to 02:00). Before: Areeiro 230.5 mm in the six values labelled 20:00 to 01:00; Santo da Serra 124.4 and São Vicente 116.6; highest mean wind 83.2 km/h at São Lourenço. Now: Areeiro 230.8 mm (21:00 to 02:00), with 30.0 mm in the newest hour; São Vicente 137.0, Santo da Serra 130.4; highest mean wind 93.2 km/h at Areeiro at 02:00. Added from the data room: IPMA publishes no station-to-area table; gusts exist only in the airports' reports. IPMA's red warnings for Madeira are unchanged.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m6",
        "m7",
        "m8",
        "m9",
        "m11"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T03:28Z",
      "what": "Two new timeline rows folded in (s-1111T0233, s-1111T0238): the first press titles on effects (\"mais de 50 ocorrências\", power cuts on Porto Santo; titles only, nothing read at the regional civil protection) and Madeira airport's 02:30 report, 67 km/h gusting 98 km/h. Before, the gust sentence quoted the 01:00 report (32 knots gusting 42) and the damage sentence one video title. No station value moved: the 03:22 read is not in the data room yet.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m11",
        "m13"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T04:28Z",
      "what": "The sentence on effects retold from a new timeline row (s-1111T0351): 71 occurrences to 02:00 (22 floodings, 13 landslides), the regional civil protection's count as reported by DN Madeira; not read at the service, whose site carries none. Before, it quoted three press titles (\"mais de 50 ocorrências\"). No station value moved: at the 03:23 read IPMA's feed still ended at the hour labelled 02:00.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m13"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T05:28Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 04:23:17 UTC (station hours to 03:00). Before: Areeiro 230.8 mm in the six values labelled 21:00 to 02:00; São Vicente 137.0. Now: Areeiro 232.1 mm (22:00 to 03:00), with 48.9 mm in the newest hour; São Vicente 141.5. IPMA's red warnings for Madeira are unchanged and run to 06:00.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m6",
        "m7",
        "m8",
        "m9"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T05:46Z",
      "what": "Added from timeline row s-1111T0541 (read 05:41 UTC). Before: one press count, 71 occurrences to 02:00 (DN Madeira). Now also: 99 occurrences and electricity restored, as posted by Lusa at 04:42; still no count read at the regional civil protection. The station figures stand on the read of 05:22:49 UTC; the red warnings' last hour ends at 06:00.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m13"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:52Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 06:25:17 UTC (station hours to 05:00) and rows s-1111T0625 and s-1111T0642. Before: Areeiro's hours to 03:00, the red warnings running to 06:00. Now: two more hours at Areeiro (33.7 and 29.3 mm; 372.4 mm in the ten values labelled 20:00 to 05:00); the highest six-hour figures unchanged (Areeiro 232.1 mm); the red warnings ended at 06:00 as scheduled, orange after them; a headline's 130 km/h is the warning's figure, not a measurement.",
      "claims_added": [
        "m14",
        "m15"
      ],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m7"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:53Z",
      "what": "One sentence corrected, after the timeline's row s-1111T0642 was corrected at 06:53. Before: the headline's 130 km/h \"is the figure in IPMA's orange wind warning for the mountains, not a measurement\". Now: it matches that figure and no such observation is in IPMA's open data; whether IPMA gave the press a measured gust is not known. The label goes from fact to evidence.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m15"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T06:54Z",
      "what": "Sentence m15 corrected a second time, after row s-1111T0642 was changed again (Lusa's article read by incident.media@). Before: the headline's 130 km/h matches IPMA's warning figure, and whether IPMA gave the press a measured gust is not known. Now: an IPMA meteorologist is reported by Lusa as saying gusts above 130 km/h were measured in the highlands (no station, no time) and more than 240 mm fell in six hours; evidence, said aloud, not read by us at IPMA.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m15"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T07:53Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 07:38:35 UTC (station hours to 07:00) and row s-1111T0727. Before: Areeiro's largest six hours 232.1 mm (22:00 to 03:00), 372.4 mm in ten values to 05:00; Pico Alto 116.7 mm. Now: 249.5 mm (01:00 to 06:00), 474.7 mm in twelve values to 07:00, with 58.0 mm in the red window's last hour and 44.3 mm in the hour after it; Pico Alto 125.3 mm. The 249.5 mm is the measurement behind the \"more than 240 mm\" the meteorologist gave Lusa. Supports for the ended red warnings now point at the kept CAP messages, since ended warnings leave IPMA's open data.",
      "claims_added": [],
      "claims_changed": [
        "m6",
        "m7",
        "m8",
        "m9",
        "m15"
      ],
      "by": "incident.stories@web-summit.dinis"
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T08:51Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 08:45:09 UTC (station hours to 08:00). Before: Areeiro 474.7 mm in twelve hourly values to 07:00. Now: 483.6 mm in thirteen; the hour labelled 08:00 had 8.9 mm, after 44.3. Pico Alto's largest six hours: 125.3 mm before, 126.8 mm now (03:00 to 08:00).",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m7",
        "m8"
      ]
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T08:54Z",
      "what": "Added from row s-1111T0822: the airport's wind falling between 07:00 and 08:30 (m16, a fact from its reports) and the meteorologist's hypothesis that the storm's centre passed close to the airport (m17). Nothing said before was changed.",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m16",
        "m17"
      ]
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T09:56Z",
      "what": "Retold on the meteorologist's analysis of 09:50 (row s-1111T0941). Before, m17 said: \"Our meteorologist's hypothesis from those reports: the storm's centre passed close to Madeira airport between about 07:30 and 08:00, later than the position in IPMA's communiqué no. 2 (a forecast) would suggest. Its reason: a swing from south-west to north-east with the wind collapsing usually means a low's centre is passing close to the observer. No track of the centre from IPMA is in the data room, so this is our analysis and not a position IPMA has given.\" Now: the swing is read as most likely a separate feature, not the centre that the models bring to Lisbon.",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m17"
      ]
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T10:52Z",
      "what": "Retold on the read of 10:22:42 UTC. Before: Areeiro 483.6 mm in thirteen hourly values to 08:00. Now: 484.2 mm in fourteen; the hour labelled 09:00 had 0.6 mm.",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m7"
      ]
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T10:53Z",
      "what": "Added from row s-1111T1007: the regional president's count and rain figure, as reported by DN Madeira (m18, evidence). The first item of \"not known\" now starts from the hour labelled 09:00 (before: 07:00).",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m18"
      ]
    },
    {
      "at_utc": "2026-11-11T11:56Z",
      "what": "m18: SAPO's 235 occurrences in Madeira added as a later press count (row s-1111T1135); the president's 205 to 09:00 stands.",
      "claims_changed": [
        "m18"
      ]
    }
  ]
}