Storm Charles · PrompTugalLive
Not a warning service. Follow IPMA, ANEPC and your local authorities. We aggregate public sources, each with its source and the time we read it.
Changed in the last hour of reads (6; last read 23:22 UTC)

The weather desk's refresh log, as its tool wrote it: changes.json, last read 23:22 UTC 10 Nov

red Wind

Wed 12:00 to 21:00

Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos.

Gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly reaching 140 km/h in the most exposed places. (our English)

IPMA, read

red Rain

Wed 12:00 to 18:00

Precipitação forte e persistente.

Heavy and persistent rain. (our English)

Also: orange Wed 05:00 to 12:00

IPMA, read

orange Sea state

Wed 12:00 to 21:00

Ondas de sudoeste com 5 a 7 metros e que poderão atingir até 13 metros de altura máxima.

South-westerly waves of 5 to 7 metres, which may reach a maximum height of 13 metres. (our English)

Also: yellow Tue 18:46 to Wed 06:00 · yellow Wed 21:00 to Thu 03:00

IPMA, read

observed Lisbon airport

26 km/h mean wind from 220°, no gust reported

At 23:00 UTC 10 Nov, -SHRA, 1008 hPa. Strongest gust so far: 67 km/h, Tue 11:00.

The airport's gusts and the warning's gusts are not the same measure.

METAR LPPT, read

Wednesday 11 November, hour by hour

Lisbon time (UTC in November). Warnings first; then forecasts; then what was observed; our analysis last and labelled.

  1. yellow Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 28

  2. orange Rain yellow Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 28

  3. orange Rain

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50, at times 83, 30% chance of 107

  4. red Rain red Wind orange Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50, at times 83, 30% chance of 107

  5. red Wind orange Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50

  6. yellow Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 22

Warnings: IPMA warnings, read . Airport forecast (strongest wind or gust in each stretch; a point forecast, not a warning): TAF LPPT 23:00, read . The full strip is below: scroll it sideways.

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223
Warned
IPMA's warnings for the Lisbon district: facts. IPMA warnings, read
Sea stateAgitação Marítima
yellow 18:46 to 06:00
orange 12:00 to 21:00
yellow 21:00 to 03:00
RainPrecipitação
orange 05:00 to 12:00
red 12:00 to 18:00
WindVento
red 12:00 to 21:00
Airport forecast
TAF for Lisbon airport (LPPT), issued 23:00 UTC 10 Nov: a point forecast for pilots, never instead of IPMA's warning. Mean wind and gusts (G) in km/h. TAF LPPT, read
Prevailingbase and becoming
28 km/h
by 09:00: 31 G50 km/h
by 20:00: 22 km/h
At timesTEMPO
RA BR
56 G83 km/h · +RA BR
30% chancePROB30 TEMPO
80 G107 km/h · +TSRA
City model
IPMA's hourly model forecast for Lisbon, stamped 2026-11-10 07:55: mean wind only, this feed has no gusts. IPMA hourly forecast, read
Mean windkm/h, from
18SW
18S
15S
18SW
12S
11S
14S
16S
11S
13SE
17S
17SE
18SE
19SE
21SE
14SE
13SE
19SE
17N
21NW
23NW
19NW
17W
17W
RainIPMA intensity class
2100%
2
2
2100%
2
2
3100%
2
2
3100%
3
3
3100%
3
3
3100%
1
1
190%
1
1
Observed
Lisbon airport's reports (METAR), the strongest in each hour: gust (G) if one was reported, else mean wind, km/h. None yet for Wednesday 11 November. METAR LPPT, read
Airportkm/h
Our analysis
A hypothesis by incident.meteorologist@web-summit.dinis, written 23:25 UTC 10 Nov: reasoning from the files above, not IPMA's words. The reasons
Worst windowconfidence: medium
hypothesis worst 12:00 to 18:00
easing, ends 21:00
The same as a table, each row with its source
LaneWhatFromToSource, time read
IPMA warning: Sea stateyellow. Ondas do quadrante oeste com 4 a 5 metros.Tue 18:46Wed 06:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Sea stateorange. Ondas de sudoeste com 5 a 7 metros e que poderão atingir até 13 metros de altura máxima.Wed 12:00Wed 21:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Sea stateyellow. Ondas de sudoeste com 4 a 5 metros.Wed 21:00Thu 03:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Rainorange. Precipitação por vezes forte e persistente.Wed 05:00Wed 12:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Rainred. Precipitação forte e persistente.Wed 12:00Wed 18:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Windred. Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos.Wed 12:00Wed 21:00IPMA, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBASE Wed 00:00 to 07:00: 210° 15 kt (28 km/h)Wed 00:00Wed 07:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBECMG Wed 07:00 to 18:00, becoming by 09:00: 160° 17 kt gusting 27 kt (31 gusting 50 km/h)Wed 07:00Wed 18:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBECMG Wed 18:00 to Thu 06:00, becoming by 20:00: 260° 12 kt (22 km/h)Wed 18:00Thu 06:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: At timesTEMPO Wed 00:00 to 09:00: wind unchanged, RA BRWed 00:00Wed 09:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: At timesTEMPO Wed 09:00 to 16:00: 160° 30 kt gusting 45 kt (56 gusting 83 km/h), +RA BRWed 09:00Wed 16:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: 30% chanceTEMPO PROB30 Wed 10:00 to 18:00: 180° 43 kt gusting 58 kt (80 gusting 107 km/h), +TSRAWed 10:00Wed 18:00TAF LPPT, read
IPMA hourly modelmean wind 11.2 to 23.4 km/h; no gusts in this feedWed 00:00Thu 00:00IPMA hourly forecast, read
Our analysis (hypothesis)worst window, confidence mediumWed 12:00Wed 18:00analysis

The TAF as issued: TAF LPPT 102300Z 1100/1206 21015KT 9999 SCT008 BKN015 TEMPO 1100/1109 4000 RA BR SCT004 BKN008 FEW018CB BECMG 1107/1109 16017G27KT TEMPO 1109/1116 16030G45KT 2000 +RA BR SCT002 BKN004 FEW016CB PROB30 TEMPO 1110/1118 18043G58KT 1200 +TSRA SCT015CB BECMG 1118/1120 26012KT BKN020

Codes: RA rain, +RA heavy rain, TSRA thunderstorm with rain, SHRA showers, BR mist; G gust; TEMPO at times; BECMG becoming.

Wind: warned, forecast, observed

One axis, km/h; Lisbon time. Three different measures, shown together and never as one: IPMA's warning is for the district's gusts, most of all in exposed places; the TAF and the observations are for one point, the airport.

030609012015012151821Wed 11 Nov03060912151821Thu 12 Nov0306IPMA red wind warning, Wed 12:00 to 21:00: Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos. (read 23:22 UTC)IPMA red warning: gusts to 120, up to 140 in the most exposed placesBASE Wed 00:00 to 07:00: 210° 15 kt (28 km/h)prevailing: 28BECMG Wed 07:00 to 18:00, becoming by 09:00: 160° 17 kt gusting 27 kt (31 gusting 50 km/h)prevailing: G50TEMPO Wed 09:00 to 16:00: 160° 30 kt gusting 45 kt (56 gusting 83 km/h), +RA BRat times: G83TEMPO PROB30 Wed 10:00 to 18:00: 180° 43 kt gusting 58 kt (80 gusting 107 km/h), +TSRA30% chance: G107BECMG Wed 18:00 to Thu 06:00, becoming by 20:00: 260° 12 kt (22 km/h)prevailing: 22Tue 12:00: gust 54 km/h (mean 35). METAR LPPT 101200Z 22019G29KT 1500 +RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 WS R20Tue 12:30: gust 61 km/h (mean 39). METAR LPPT 101230Z 21021G33KT 5000 -RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1007 RERA WS R20Tue 13:00: gust 67 km/h (mean 41). METAR LPPT 101300Z 21022G36KT 9000 BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 13:30: mean 48 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101330Z 21026KT 1500 RA BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 14:00: gust 57 km/h (mean 39). METAR LPPT 101400Z 22021G31KT 7000 FEW003 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 RERA WS R20Tue 14:30: mean 37 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101430Z 22020KT 8000 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 WS R20Tue 15:00: gust 54 km/h (mean 31). METAR LPPT 101500Z 22017G29KT 9000 FEW008 BKN012 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 15:30: mean 30 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101530Z 22016KT 9999 FEW016 SCT036 19/17 Q1007 WS R20Tue 16:00: mean 22 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101600Z 23012KT 200V260 9999 FEW013 BKN021 19/17 Q1007 WS R20Tue 16:30: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101630Z 25009KT 220V280 9999 VCSH SCT010 BKN018 18/16 Q1008 WS R20Tue 17:00: mean 20 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101700Z 23011KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 18/16 Q1008 WS R20Tue 17:30: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101730Z 22009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q1008Tue 18:00: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101800Z 23009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q1008Tue 18:30: mean 15 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101830Z 21008KT 9999 FEW008 SCT016 18/17 Q1008Tue 19:00: mean 19 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101900Z 21010KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 19/17 Q1008Tue 19:30: mean 20 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101930Z 22011KT 9999 FEW008 BKN020 19/17 Q1008Tue 20:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102000Z 21013KT 9999 SCT008 BKN014 19/18 Q1008Tue 20:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102030Z 21013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN014 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 21:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102100Z 20013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN010 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 21:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102130Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 22:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102200Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 22:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102230Z COR 20013KT 9999 SCT006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 23:00: mean 26 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102300Z 22014KT 9999 -SHRA SCT006 BKN011 FEW018CB 19/17 Q1008 NOSIGobserved 23:00: 26
The observations as a table (23 reports, newest first)
Time (UTC)Mean, km/hGust, km/hFromReport as issuedRead
Tue 23:0026220°METAR LPPT 102300Z 22014KT 9999 -SHRA SCT006 BKN011 FEW018CB 19/17 Q1008 NOSIG23:22
Tue 22:3024200°METAR LPPT 102230Z COR 20013KT 9999 SCT006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG23:22
Tue 22:0024200°METAR LPPT 102200Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG22:23
Tue 21:3024200°METAR LPPT 102130Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG22:03
Tue 21:0024200°METAR LPPT 102100Z 20013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN010 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG21:18
Tue 20:3024210°METAR LPPT 102030Z 21013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN014 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG21:18
Tue 20:0024210°METAR LPPT 102000Z 21013KT 9999 SCT008 BKN014 19/18 Q100820:22
Tue 19:3020220°METAR LPPT 101930Z 22011KT 9999 FEW008 BKN020 19/17 Q100820:04
Tue 19:0019210°METAR LPPT 101900Z 21010KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 19/17 Q100819:07
Tue 18:3015210°METAR LPPT 101830Z 21008KT 9999 FEW008 SCT016 18/17 Q100819:01
Tue 18:0017230°METAR LPPT 101800Z 23009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q100819:01
Tue 17:3017220°METAR LPPT 101730Z 22009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q100819:01
Tue 17:0020230°METAR LPPT 101700Z 23011KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 18/16 Q1008 WS R2019:01
Tue 16:3017250°METAR LPPT 101630Z 25009KT 220V280 9999 VCSH SCT010 BKN018 18/16 Q1008 WS R2019:01
Tue 16:0022230°METAR LPPT 101600Z 23012KT 200V260 9999 FEW013 BKN021 19/17 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 15:3030220°METAR LPPT 101530Z 22016KT 9999 FEW016 SCT036 19/17 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 15:003154220°METAR LPPT 101500Z 22017G29KT 9000 FEW008 BKN012 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 14:3037220°METAR LPPT 101430Z 22020KT 8000 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 WS R2019:01
Tue 14:003957220°METAR LPPT 101400Z 22021G31KT 7000 FEW003 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 RERA WS R2019:01
Tue 13:3048210°METAR LPPT 101330Z 21026KT 1500 RA BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 13:004167210°METAR LPPT 101300Z 21022G36KT 9000 BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 12:303961210°METAR LPPT 101230Z 21021G33KT 5000 -RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1007 RERA WS R2019:01
Tue 12:003554220°METAR LPPT 101200Z 22019G29KT 1500 +RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 WS R2019:01

Source: NOAA AWC, METAR LPPT (IPMA issues it), read . The file: airport.json.

Latest signals

  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): the TAF's peak (09:00 to 16:00) and IPMA's model peak (19:00 to 20:00) disagree, so the peak is widened back to 12:00 to 18:00; end 21:00; Thursday morning behind the storm, medium confidence; a weaker airport forecast is not a downgrade of IPMA's warningdata/weather/analysis.md section 5
  • factThe first airport TAF covering Thursday (issued 23:00) is weaker than 17:00's: Wed 09:00 to 16:00 at times 30 kt gusting 45 (83 km/h); 30% chance (was 40%) of 58 kt thunderstorm gusts 10:00 to 18:00; west 12 kt from 18:00 to 20:00; Thursday 00:00 to 06:00 west 12 kt, no gusts. IPMA's red warnings unchangedLPPT TAF (IPMA, via NOAA's Aviation Weather), data/weather/airport.json (incident.meteorologist@, a63ac9696)
  • factNo further statement from Web Summit (social.watch@'s sweep 4); still open: Wednesday's talks, the PITCH semi-final (when it was set is in conflict: Wednesday 17:00 in social.watch@'s summary, unsourced there; Thursday in Tech Times' preview of 9 Nov), side events (Web Summit's own Night Summit still listed for Wednesday 18:00 to 00:00, no notice, 22:05), ticketssocial.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, sweep 4 (21:51 to 21:53); incident.researcher@ (22:05)
  • evidencea speaker says in public that Day 2 is cancelled and his talks and press conference stay on Thursday (the first sign that Thursday's programme holds for some speakers)Jon S. von Tetzchner on Mastodon
  • factWeb Summit's blog listing shows the update post modified 20:06; its text unchanged on Day 2 and Day 3 ("aims to proceed")websummit.com, incident.dev@'s 2-min watch (data/watch/websummit.json)
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): IPMA's hourly model changed its values (same 07:55 stamp): Wednesday's strongest mean wind now 23 km/h at 20:00 (was 49 at 18:00); the swing to north 18:00; peak most likely 17:00 to 20:00 (was 15:00 to 19:00); worst window 12:00 to 18:00 and end 21:00 unchanged; IPMA's red warnings unchanged and outrank one modeldata/weather/analysis.md section 4 (1b936db20)
  • factThe incident moves to its own site: https://storm-charles.promptugal.news (this repository); first push to served 23 s (v0.1.2), against 3 to 10 minutes on web-summit.sgit.aiincident.conductor@, at Dinis's word
  • evidencethe cancellation in the international press (PT and EN); coast and riverside access prohibited Wednesday; nothing on refunds or PITCHEuronews EN
  • evidenceorganisers will contact those affected directly; not said whether Wednesday's programme is cancelled or moved (N6 still open)Observador
  • factChecked by the lead: websummit.com home and news list carry no notice of Day 2 (the notice was already up at /blog/web-summit/ since 19:09, a path we did not check)websummit.com, read 19:52 by incident.conductor@
  • evidenceThursday resumes "if the weather allows" (DN's wording; RTP's "as planned, after the storm"; the organisers' own page: "aims to proceed")Diário de Notícias
  • evidenceorganisers will hold Thursday "conforme planeado, após a passagem da tempestade Charles"; people affected will be contacted directlyRTP, live
  • evidenceorganisers cancel all of Wednesday's activities (coastal flooding, wind on outdoor structures, transport), after coordinating with the authoritiesDiário de Notícias, live
  • evidencePublic: "Após recomendação do Governo, Paddy suspende Web Summit na quarta-feira"; the organisers quoted: the government "informou formalmente a Web Summit" of the risksJornal de Negócios, live, 19:42

The whole timeline · Decisions

Where: Wednesday 11 November, district by district

Red wind in 9: Setúbal, Leiria, Lisboa, Portalegre, Santarém, Beja, Faro, Madeira, mountains, Évora. Red rain in 9: Setúbal, Leiria, Lisboa, Portalegre, Santarém, Madeira, mountains, Castelo Branco, Madeira, north coast, Madeira, south coast. Every district IPMA has under red or orange on the day (yellow is not shown here); most red hours first. In each row, top to bottom: wind, rain, sea. IPMA warnings, read . Names from IPMA's list of districts and islands, IPMA's area code beside each; MCN and MRM are not in that list and are named by us.

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223
Setúbal STBwind red · rain red · sea orange
Leiria LRAwind red · rain red
Lisboa LSBwind red · rain red · sea orange
Portalegre PTGwind red · rain red
Santarém STMwind red · rain red
Beja BJAwind red · rain orange · sea orange
Faro FARwind red · rain orange · sea orange
Madeira, mountains MRMwind red · rain red
Évora EVRwind red · rain orange
Castelo Branco CBOwind orange · rain red
Madeira, north coast MCNwind orange · rain red
Madeira, south coast MCSwind orange · rain red
Aveiro AVRrain orange
Braga BRGrain orange
Bragança BGCrain orange
Coimbra CBRwind orange · rain orange
Guarda GDAwind orange · rain orange
Porto PTOrain orange
Porto Santo MPSwind orange · rain orange
Viana do Castelo VCTrain orange
Vila Real VRLrain orange
Viseu VISrain orange

The live dashboard (the decision graph, the weather, the timeline) · The meteorologist's analysis (labelled as analysis)