Storm Charles · PrompTugalLive
Not a warning service. Follow IPMA, ANEPC and your local authorities. We aggregate public sources, each with its source and the time we read it.
Changed in the last hour of reads (13; last read 00:00 UTC)
6 more
  • met.no forecast updated 2026-11-10T23:20:44Z
  • FIRST TAF COVERING THURSDAY: issued 2026-11-10T23:00Z, valid to 2026-11-12T06:00Z
  • stations to 22:00: top mean wind 20.5 km/h at Lisboa, Carnide (CML)
  • LPPT METAR 23:00: 26 km/h
  • THURSDAY: warnings yellow Agitação Marítima 11T21:00-12T03:00; model Thu 00-12 mean wind 16.2-24.1 km/h
  • THURSDAY: warnings yellow Agitação Marítima 11T21:00-12T03:00; model Thu 00-12 mean wind 16.2-24.1 km/h

The weather desk's refresh log, as its tool wrote it: changes.json, last read 00:00 UTC 11 Nov

red Wind

Wed 12:00 to 21:00

Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos.

Gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly reaching 140 km/h in the most exposed places. (our English)

This window sent by IPMA Tue 07:18 via MeteoAlarmValid to Wed 21:00Next read 00:22

IPMA, read

red Rain

Wed 09:00 to 18:00

Precipitação forte e persistente.

Heavy and persistent rain. (our English)

Also: orange Wed 00:00 to 09:00

This window sent by IPMA Tue 21:23 via MeteoAlarmValid to Wed 18:00Next read 00:22

IPMA, read

orange Sea state

Wed 12:00 to 21:00

Ondas de sudoeste com 5 a 7 metros e que poderão atingir até 13 metros de altura máxima.

South-westerly waves of 5 to 7 metres, which may reach a maximum height of 13 metres. (our English)

Also: yellow Tue 21:24 to Wed 06:00 · yellow Wed 21:00 to Thu 03:00

This window sent by IPMA Tue 12:09 via MeteoAlarmValid to Wed 21:00Next read 00:22

IPMA, read

observed Lisbon airport

20 km/h mean wind from 220°, no gust reported

At 23:30 UTC 10 Nov, -SHRA, 1008 hPa. Strongest gust so far: 67 km/h, Tue 11:00.

The airport's gusts and the warning's gusts are not the same measure.

METAR LPPT, read

The times IPMA sent each warning are read from IPMA's messages on MeteoAlarm (EUMETNET). Time delays between this website and the www.meteoalarm.org website are possible. For the most up-to-date awareness information as published by the participating National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, please refer to www.meteoalarm.org. Our copy is a dated record, read about every 5 to 30 minutes (last read 00:00 UTC 11 Nov), not a live feed.

Wednesday 11 November, hour by hour

Lisbon time (UTC in November). Warnings first; then forecasts; then what was observed; our analysis last and labelled.

IPMA warns red rain 09:00 to 18:00 and red wind 12:00 to 21:00 for the Lisbon district IPMA, read . The airport last reported 20 km/h mean wind, no gust, at 23:30 METAR LPPT, read . 12 decisions are drawn in force on the day, the latest by CP, Tue 23:10 source, read .

  1. orange Rain yellow Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 28

  2. orange Rain

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50

  3. red Rain

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50, at times 83, 30% chance of 107

  4. red Rain red Wind orange Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50, at times 83, 30% chance of 107

  5. red Wind orange Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 50

  6. yellow Sea state

    Airport forecast, km/h: up to 22

Warnings: IPMA warnings, read . Airport forecast (strongest wind or gust in each stretch; a point forecast, not a warning): TAF LPPT 23:00, read . The full strip is below: scroll it sideways.

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223
Warned
IPMA's warnings for the Lisbon district: facts. IPMA warnings, read
Sea stateAgitação Marítima
yellow 21:24 to 06:00
orange 12:00 to 21:00
yellow 21:00 to 03:00
RainPrecipitação
orange 00:00 to 09:00
red 09:00 to 18:00
WindVento
red 12:00 to 21:00
Decided
Decisions in force on the day, on the same hours: who decided, what, from when to when, in the sources' own hours. Solid: a fact, read on the decider's own channel. Outlined: evidence, reported by others. Dotted, across the day: the source names the day but no hours. Under each name: the label and when it was decided. Each bar links to its source. The decision graph, updated 23:55 UTC 10 Nov
Government of Portugalfact · Tue 12:10
fact 00:00 to 23:59 Alert situation for all of mainland Portugal, 11 Nov 00:00 to 23:59: (a) schools and non-essential public services close; (b) outdoor events suspended, whatever their nature; (c) no access to high-risk parks; (d) temporary structures secured; (e) no access to shoreline and flood areas; activates coordination centres and civil-protection commissions
Schoolsfact · Tue 12:10
fact 00:00 to 23:59 Schools closed on Wednesday
Rede Expressosevidence · 10 Nov, hour not given
evidence 10:00 to 23:59 All national coach services suspended Wednesday 10:00 to 23:59
Transtejo Soflusaevidence · 10 Nov, hour not given
evidence from 05:00, end not stated Ferries start at 05:00 as usual on Wednesday; reassessed from 12:00 (the latter from a search summary)
Câmara Municipal de Lisboaevidence · Tue 13:16
evidence from 00:00, end not stated All Lisbon road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too (the mayor, after meeting civil protection)
CPevidence · Tue 23:10
evidence 12:00 to 15:00 CP suppresses four trains crossing the 25 de Abril bridge in the most critical window (12:00 to 15:00 forecast: heavy rain, strong wind)
6 more decisions for the day, hours not stated: Carris, Web Summit, Metropolitano de Lisboa, Lusoponte, Lisbon airport, FlixBus
Carrisfact · 10 Nov, hour not given
fact hours not stated Carris to run, buses followed "minute by minute" from the operations centre (mayor); carris.pt banner "Alerta: perturbações na circulação"
Web Summitfact · Tue 19:09
fact hours not stated Day 2 (Wednesday 11 Nov) will not take place: "Web Summit will of course respect the Government's direction, and accordingly, Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th) will not take place." Reasons given: tidal flooding, severe disruption to public transport, high winds on external structures; after discussions with the government, ANEPC and PSP.
Metropolitano de Lisboaevidence · 10 Nov, hour not given
evidence hours not stated Metro to run on Wednesday (announced by the mayor)
Lusoponteevidence · Tue 14:48
evidence hours not stated 25 de Abril and Vasco da Gama bridges limited to 60 km/h
Lisbon airportevidence · Tue 18:04
evidence hours not stated ANA: operations at Lisbon, Faro and Madeira airports conditioned on 11 Nov; cancellations expected
FlixBusevidence · Tue 18:25
evidence hours not stated FlixBus suspends all national links in Portugal on Wednesday 11 Nov
Airport forecast
TAF for Lisbon airport (LPPT), issued 23:00 UTC 10 Nov: a point forecast for pilots, never instead of IPMA's warning. Mean wind and gusts (G) in km/h. TAF LPPT, read
Prevailingbase and becoming
28 km/h
by 09:00: 31 G50 km/h
by 20:00: 22 km/h
At timesTEMPO
RA BR
56 G83 km/h · +RA BR
30% chancePROB30 TEMPO
80 G107 km/h · +TSRA
City model
City model, mean wind. Why these numbers sit far below the warning's: this is a model's value for one point in the city, the wind averaged over minutes; mean wind only, this feed has no gusts. The warning is IPMA's forecasters on gusts, the brief peaks: up to 120 km/h across the district, 140 in its most exposed places. Two measures, not two opinions (our explanation). IPMA's hourly model forecast for Lisbon, stamped 07:55 Tue; IPMA has changed its values since without changing the stamp (read 00:00). IPMA hourly forecast, read
Mean windcity model · km/h, from
18SW
18S
15S
18SW
12S
11S
14S
16S
11S
13SE
17S
17SE
18SE
19SE
21SE
14SE
13SE
19SE
17N
21NW
23NW
19NW
17W
17W
Raincity model · IPMA intensity class
2100%
2
2
2100%
2
2
3100%
2
2
3100%
3
3
3100%
3
3
3100%
1
1
190%
1
1
Observed
Lisbon airport's reports (METAR), the strongest in each hour: gust (G) if one was reported, else mean wind, km/h. None yet for Wednesday 11 November. METAR LPPT, read
Airportkm/h
The same as a table, each row with its source
LaneWhatFromToSource, time read
IPMA warning: Sea stateyellow. Ondas do quadrante oeste com 4 a 5 metros.Tue 21:24Wed 06:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Sea stateorange. Ondas de sudoeste com 5 a 7 metros e que poderão atingir até 13 metros de altura máxima.Wed 12:00Wed 21:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Sea stateyellow. Ondas de sudoeste com 4 a 5 metros.Wed 21:00Thu 03:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Rainorange. Precipitação por vezes forte e persistente.Wed 00:00Wed 09:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Rainred. Precipitação forte e persistente.Wed 09:00Wed 18:00IPMA, read
IPMA warning: Windred. Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos.Wed 12:00Wed 21:00IPMA, read
Decision: Government of Portugalfact. Alert situation for all of mainland Portugal, 11 Nov 00:00 to 23:59: (a) schools and non-essential public services close; (b) outdoor events suspended, whatever their nature; (c) no access to high-risk parks; (d) temporary structures secured; (e) no access to shoreline and flood areas; activates coordination centres and civil-protection commissions (00:00 to 23:59: "entre as 00h00 e as 23h59 de 11 de novembro" (the declaration))Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Government of Portugal, read
Decision: Schoolsfact. Schools closed on Wednesday (00:00 to 23:59: measure (a) of the alert declaration, whose period is 00:00 to 23:59 on 11 Nov)Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Schools, read
Decision: Rede Expressosevidence. All national coach services suspended Wednesday 10:00 to 23:59 (10:00 to 23:59: "entre as 10h00 e as 23h59" (Jornal de Negócios 12:39; Jornal Económico 17:47))Wed 10:00Thu 00:00Rede Expressos, read
Decision: Transtejo Soflusaevidence. Ferries start at 05:00 as usual on Wednesday; reassessed from 12:00 (the latter from a search summary) (from 05:00, end not stated: Jornal Económico: "a operação terá início às 05h00, como habitual"; the reassessment from 12:00 is from a search summary of TSF (not opened); end not stated)Wed 05:00Thu 00:00Transtejo Soflusa, read
Decision: Câmara Municipal de Lisboaevidence. All Lisbon road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too (the mayor, after meeting civil protection) (from 00:00, end not stated: "a partir da meia-noite" (the mayor, Jornal de Negócios 13:16); end not stated. The same entry adds parks, gardens and cultural facilities closed from midnight.)Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Câmara Municipal de Lisboa, read
Decision: CPevidence. CP suppresses four trains crossing the 25 de Abril bridge in the most critical window (12:00 to 15:00 forecast: heavy rain, strong wind) (12:00 to 15:00: CP: trains in "o intervalo horário identificado como mais crítico", forecast "entre as 12:00 e as 15:00"; the article also says "entre o período da manhã e início da tarde")Wed 12:00Wed 15:00CP, read
Decision: Carrisfact. Carris to run, buses followed "minute by minute" from the operations centre (mayor); carris.pt banner "Alerta: perturbações na circulação" (hours not stated: hours not stated; Jornal Económico: "ao longo do dia")Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Carris, read
Decision: Web Summitfact. Day 2 (Wednesday 11 Nov) will not take place: "Web Summit will of course respect the Government's direction, and accordingly, Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th) will not take place." Reasons given: tidal flooding, severe disruption to public transport, high winds on external structures; after discussions with the government, ANEPC and PSP. (hours not stated: hours not stated; the source names the day: "Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th)")Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Web Summit, read
Decision: Metropolitano de Lisboaevidence. Metro to run on Wednesday (announced by the mayor) (hours not stated: hours not stated)Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Metropolitano de Lisboa, read
Decision: Lusoponteevidence. 25 de Abril and Vasco da Gama bridges limited to 60 km/h (hours not stated: hours not stated: "encontra-se reduzida" (in force from the announcement, 14:48 Tuesday); end not stated)Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Lusoponte, read
Decision: Lisbon airportevidence. ANA: operations at Lisbon, Faro and Madeira airports conditioned on 11 Nov; cancellations expected (hours not stated: hours not stated; the source names the day, 11 November)Wed 00:00Thu 00:00Lisbon airport, read
Decision: FlixBusevidence. FlixBus suspends all national links in Portugal on Wednesday 11 Nov (hours not stated: hours not stated: "começa de madrugada e prolonga-se até ao final do dia")Wed 00:00Thu 00:00FlixBus, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBASE Wed 00:00 to 07:00: 210° 15 kt (28 km/h)Wed 00:00Wed 07:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBECMG Wed 07:00 to 18:00, becoming by 09:00: 160° 17 kt gusting 27 kt (31 gusting 50 km/h)Wed 07:00Wed 18:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: PrevailingBECMG Wed 18:00 to Thu 06:00, becoming by 20:00: 260° 12 kt (22 km/h)Wed 18:00Thu 06:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: At timesTEMPO Wed 00:00 to 09:00: wind unchanged, RA BRWed 00:00Wed 09:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: At timesTEMPO Wed 09:00 to 16:00: 160° 30 kt gusting 45 kt (56 gusting 83 km/h), +RA BRWed 09:00Wed 16:00TAF LPPT, read
Airport TAF: 30% chanceTEMPO PROB30 Wed 10:00 to 18:00: 180° 43 kt gusting 58 kt (80 gusting 107 km/h), +TSRAWed 10:00Wed 18:00TAF LPPT, read
IPMA hourly modelmean wind 11.2 to 23.4 km/h; no gusts in this feedWed 00:00Thu 00:00IPMA hourly forecast, read

The TAF as issued: TAF LPPT 102300Z 1100/1206 21015KT 9999 SCT008 BKN015 TEMPO 1100/1109 4000 RA BR SCT004 BKN008 FEW018CB BECMG 1107/1109 16017G27KT TEMPO 1109/1116 16030G45KT 2000 +RA BR SCT002 BKN004 FEW016CB PROB30 TEMPO 1110/1118 18043G58KT 1200 +TSRA SCT015CB BECMG 1118/1120 26012KT BKN020

Codes: RA rain, +RA heavy rain, TSRA thunderstorm with rain, SHRA showers, BR mist; G gust; TEMPO at times; BECMG becoming.

Wind: warned, forecast, observed

One axis, km/h; Lisbon time. Three different measures, shown together and never as one: IPMA's warning is for the district's gusts, most of all in exposed places; the TAF and the observations are for one point, the airport.

030609012015012151821Wed 11 Nov03060912151821Thu 12 Nov0306IPMA red wind warning, Wed 12:00 to 21:00: Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos. (read 00:00 UTC)IPMA red warning: gusts to 120, up to 140 in the most exposed placesBASE Wed 00:00 to 07:00: 210° 15 kt (28 km/h)prevailing: 28BECMG Wed 07:00 to 18:00, becoming by 09:00: 160° 17 kt gusting 27 kt (31 gusting 50 km/h)prevailing: G50TEMPO Wed 09:00 to 16:00: 160° 30 kt gusting 45 kt (56 gusting 83 km/h), +RA BRat times: G83TEMPO PROB30 Wed 10:00 to 18:00: 180° 43 kt gusting 58 kt (80 gusting 107 km/h), +TSRA30% chance: G107BECMG Wed 18:00 to Thu 06:00, becoming by 20:00: 260° 12 kt (22 km/h)prevailing: 22Tue 12:00: gust 54 km/h (mean 35). METAR LPPT 101200Z 22019G29KT 1500 +RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 WS R20Tue 12:30: gust 61 km/h (mean 39). METAR LPPT 101230Z 21021G33KT 5000 -RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1007 RERA WS R20Tue 13:00: gust 67 km/h (mean 41). METAR LPPT 101300Z 21022G36KT 9000 BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 13:30: mean 48 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101330Z 21026KT 1500 RA BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 14:00: gust 57 km/h (mean 39). METAR LPPT 101400Z 22021G31KT 7000 FEW003 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 RERA WS R20Tue 14:30: mean 37 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101430Z 22020KT 8000 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 WS R20Tue 15:00: gust 54 km/h (mean 31). METAR LPPT 101500Z 22017G29KT 9000 FEW008 BKN012 19/18 Q1007 WS R20Tue 15:30: mean 30 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101530Z 22016KT 9999 FEW016 SCT036 19/17 Q1007 WS R20Tue 16:00: mean 22 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101600Z 23012KT 200V260 9999 FEW013 BKN021 19/17 Q1007 WS R20Tue 16:30: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101630Z 25009KT 220V280 9999 VCSH SCT010 BKN018 18/16 Q1008 WS R20Tue 17:00: mean 20 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101700Z 23011KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 18/16 Q1008 WS R20Tue 17:30: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101730Z 22009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q1008Tue 18:00: mean 17 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101800Z 23009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q1008Tue 18:30: mean 15 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101830Z 21008KT 9999 FEW008 SCT016 18/17 Q1008Tue 19:00: mean 19 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101900Z 21010KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 19/17 Q1008Tue 19:30: mean 20 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 101930Z 22011KT 9999 FEW008 BKN020 19/17 Q1008Tue 20:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102000Z 21013KT 9999 SCT008 BKN014 19/18 Q1008Tue 20:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102030Z 21013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN014 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 21:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102100Z 20013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN010 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 21:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102130Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 22:00: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102200Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 22:30: mean 24 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102230Z COR 20013KT 9999 SCT006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGTue 23:00: mean 26 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102300Z 22014KT 9999 -SHRA SCT006 BKN011 FEW018CB 19/17 Q1008 NOSIGTue 23:30: mean 20 km/h, no gust reported. METAR LPPT 102330Z 22011KT 9999 -SHRA FEW005 SCT006 BKN016 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1008 NOSIGobserved 23:30: 20
The observations as a table (24 reports, newest first)
Time (UTC)Mean, km/hGust, km/hFromReport as issuedRead
Tue 23:3020220°METAR LPPT 102330Z 22011KT 9999 -SHRA FEW005 SCT006 BKN016 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG23:51
Tue 23:0026220°METAR LPPT 102300Z 22014KT 9999 -SHRA SCT006 BKN011 FEW018CB 19/17 Q1008 NOSIG23:22
Tue 22:3024200°METAR LPPT 102230Z COR 20013KT 9999 SCT006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG23:22
Tue 22:0024200°METAR LPPT 102200Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG22:23
Tue 21:3024200°METAR LPPT 102130Z 20013KT 9999 SCT006 BKN009 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG22:03
Tue 21:0024200°METAR LPPT 102100Z 20013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN010 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG21:18
Tue 20:3024210°METAR LPPT 102030Z 21013KT 9999 SCT007 BKN014 19/18 Q1008 NOSIG21:18
Tue 20:0024210°METAR LPPT 102000Z 21013KT 9999 SCT008 BKN014 19/18 Q100820:22
Tue 19:3020220°METAR LPPT 101930Z 22011KT 9999 FEW008 BKN020 19/17 Q100820:04
Tue 19:0019210°METAR LPPT 101900Z 21010KT 9999 FEW008 BKN016 19/17 Q100819:07
Tue 18:3015210°METAR LPPT 101830Z 21008KT 9999 FEW008 SCT016 18/17 Q100819:01
Tue 18:0017230°METAR LPPT 101800Z 23009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q100819:01
Tue 17:3017220°METAR LPPT 101730Z 22009KT 9999 SCT020 18/16 Q100819:01
Tue 17:0020230°METAR LPPT 101700Z 23011KT 9999 VCSH SCT012 18/16 Q1008 WS R2019:01
Tue 16:3017250°METAR LPPT 101630Z 25009KT 220V280 9999 VCSH SCT010 BKN018 18/16 Q1008 WS R2019:01
Tue 16:0022230°METAR LPPT 101600Z 23012KT 200V260 9999 FEW013 BKN021 19/17 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 15:3030220°METAR LPPT 101530Z 22016KT 9999 FEW016 SCT036 19/17 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 15:003154220°METAR LPPT 101500Z 22017G29KT 9000 FEW008 BKN012 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 14:3037220°METAR LPPT 101430Z 22020KT 8000 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 WS R2019:01
Tue 14:003957220°METAR LPPT 101400Z 22021G31KT 7000 FEW003 BKN006 19/18 Q1006 RERA WS R2019:01
Tue 13:3048210°METAR LPPT 101330Z 21026KT 1500 RA BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 13:004167210°METAR LPPT 101300Z 21022G36KT 9000 BKN006 FEW018CB 19/18 Q1007 WS R2019:01
Tue 12:303961210°METAR LPPT 101230Z 21021G33KT 5000 -RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1007 RERA WS R2019:01
Tue 12:003554220°METAR LPPT 101200Z 22019G29KT 1500 +RA BKN006 FEW018TCU 19/18 Q1008 WS R2019:01

Source: NOAA AWC, METAR LPPT (IPMA issues it), read . The file: airport.json.

Latest signals

  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.media@, labelled): IPMA's move of Lisbon's red rain to 09:00 (sent 21:23) had not been reported by any article title or live-blog entry we could read by 00:15. Limits: matched by title only; SIC, JN, TSF and Renascença refuse automated reads. Who was first on the other facts: red wind (IPMA 07:18): DN live 08:05; Day 2 off (19:09): ECO and TEK 19:41research/media/first-on-each-fact.json, ranking.md (f487bfb)
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, hypothesis, confidence low to medium): the official and model data are consistent with the centre passing very close to Lisbon at about 17:00 to 18:00 Wednesday, more likely just south of it (met.no's pressure minimum 986.7 hPa at 17:00 to 18:00 and a 160° wind swing in an hour; the guidance has moved). Against: IPMA's red wind unchanged, its track text already includes Lisbon, no communiqué no. 3, point models move. It does not lower the danger: the worst moves toward the passage, about 16:00 to 19:00, and a lull near the centre is not the end. Wednesday tests it: wind backing east then north and pressure near 987 hPa means it passed southdata/weather/analysis.md section 7 (d6e8aace1)
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.media@, labelled): the press on Day 2 after Web Summit's 19:09 page: ECO and TEK 19:41 (32 min later), DN 19:49, Lusa via Notícias ao Minuto 20:01, Observador 20:08, Euronews 20:29, Expresso 20:39; Web Summit's Bluesky still silent on Day 2 at 23:51; 87 of 212 press items read carry Lusa's by-line, across 6 outlets. Limits: six outlets refuse automated reads and are absent, not silentresearch/media/coverage.json, ranking.md (incident.media@, 96ff00c)
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): worst window now 09:00 to 18:00, the core 12:00 to 18:00 when both reds overlap; over by 21:00. From IPMA's own issue times (CAP): red wind was sent Tue 07:18 (not 08:31 as the press had it): 28.7 h ahead; red rain 19.5 h; the move to 09:00, 11.6 hdata/weather/analysis.md section 6
  • evidenceNo post on Web Summit's blog after "Important event update" (19:09); nothing new on public Mastodon since 21:45websummit.com/blog
  • factIPMA moved Lisbon's red rain warning three hours earlier: Wednesday 09:00 to 18:00 (was 12:00 to 18:00; supersedes s-1110T1742); orange rain now 00:00 to 09:00; red wind unchanged (12:00 to 21:00). IPMA sent the change at 21:23 (its CAP message); its open-data feed showed it only from the 23:51 readIPMA warnings open data
  • evidenceLisbon airport: ANA expects flight cancellations on Wednesday ("Operations at Lisbon, Faro and Madeira airports will be affected")Madeira Island News
  • evidence(unofficial, unverified) a public weather page on Facebook shows the storm's track further south than first forecast, toward Lisbon and just south of it; the image is undated and the page is not IPMA. To compare with IPMA's next communiqué; IPMA's own text keeps "entre Sines e o Cabo Carvoeiro" with high uncertaintywatcher@web-summit.jose, at Jose's word (SGit-AI__Website__Web-Summit 6745608, people/jose/watcher/signals/2026-11-10-storm-track.md); not opened by us
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): the TAF's peak (09:00 to 16:00) and IPMA's model peak (19:00 to 20:00) disagree, so the peak is widened back to 12:00 to 18:00; end 21:00; Thursday morning behind the storm, medium confidence; a weaker airport forecast is not a downgrade of IPMA's warningdata/weather/analysis.md section 5
  • factThe first airport TAF covering Thursday (issued 23:00) is weaker than 17:00's: Wed 09:00 to 16:00 at times 30 kt gusting 45 (83 km/h); 30% chance (was 40%) of 58 kt thunderstorm gusts 10:00 to 18:00; west 12 kt from 18:00 to 20:00; Thursday 00:00 to 06:00 west 12 kt, no gusts. IPMA's red warnings unchangedLPPT TAF (IPMA, via NOAA's Aviation Weather), data/weather/airport.json (incident.meteorologist@, a63ac9696)
  • factNo further statement from Web Summit (social.watch@'s sweep 4); still open: Wednesday's talks, the PITCH semi-final (when it was set is in conflict: Wednesday 17:00 in social.watch@'s summary, unsourced there; Thursday in Tech Times' preview of 9 Nov), side events (Web Summit's own Night Summit still listed for Wednesday 18:00 to 00:00, no notice, 22:05), ticketssocial.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, sweep 4 (21:51 to 21:53); incident.researcher@ (22:05)
  • evidencea speaker says in public that Day 2 is cancelled and his talks and press conference stay on Thursday (the first sign that Thursday's programme holds for some speakers)Jon S. von Tetzchner on Mastodon
  • factWeb Summit's blog listing shows the update post modified 20:06; its text unchanged on Day 2 and Day 3 ("aims to proceed")websummit.com, incident.dev@'s 2-min watch (data/watch/websummit.json)
  • hypothesisanalysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): IPMA's hourly model changed its values (same 07:55 stamp): Wednesday's strongest mean wind now 23 km/h at 20:00 (was 49 at 18:00); the swing to north 18:00; peak most likely 17:00 to 20:00 (was 15:00 to 19:00); worst window 12:00 to 18:00 and end 21:00 unchanged; IPMA's red warnings unchanged and outrank one modeldata/weather/analysis.md section 4 (1b936db20)

The whole timeline · Decisions

Where: Wednesday 11 November, district by district

Red wind in 9: Beja, Faro, Setúbal, Lisboa, Leiria, Portalegre, Santarém, Madeira, mountains, Évora. Red rain in 11: Beja, Faro, Setúbal, Lisboa, Leiria, Portalegre, Santarém, Madeira, mountains, Castelo Branco, Madeira, north coast, Madeira, south coast. Every district IPMA has under red or orange on the day (yellow is not shown here); most red hours first. In each row, top to bottom: wind, rain, sea. IPMA warnings, read . Names from IPMA's list of districts and islands, IPMA's area code beside each; MCN and MRM are not in that list and are named by us.

Viana do Castelo VCTorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Braga BRGorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Vila Real VRLorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Bragança BGCorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Porto PTOorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Viseu VISorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Guarda GDAorange Wind 12:00 to 21:00orange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Aveiro AVRorange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Coimbra CBRorange Wind 12:00 to 21:00orange Rain 03:00 to 21:00
Castelo Branco CBOorange Wind 12:00 to 21:00red Rain 12:00 to 18:00
Leiria LRAred Wind 12:00 to 21:00red Rain 12:00 to 18:00
Santarém STMred Wind 12:00 to 21:00red Rain 12:00 to 18:00
Portalegre PTGred Wind 12:00 to 21:00red Rain 12:00 to 18:00
Lisboa LSBred Wind 12:00 to 21:00red Rain 09:00 to 18:00orange Sea 12:00 to 21:00
Évora EVRred Wind 12:00 to 21:00orange Rain 03:00 to 18:00
Setúbal STBred Wind 09:00 to 21:00red Rain 09:00 to 18:00orange Sea 12:00 to 21:00
Beja BJAred Wind 09:00 to 21:00red Rain 09:00 to 18:00orange Sea 12:00 to 21:00
Faro FARred Wind 09:00 to 21:00red Rain 09:00 to 18:00orange Sea 12:00 to 21:00

Madeira

Madeira, north coast MCNorange Wind Tue 21:00 to Wed 12:00red Rain Tue 21:00 to Wed 06:00
Madeira, mountains MRMred Wind 00:00 to 06:00red Rain Tue 21:00 to Wed 06:00
Madeira, south coast MCSorange Wind Tue 21:00 to Wed 12:00red Rain Tue 21:00 to Wed 06:00
Porto Santo MPSorange Wind Tue 21:00 to Wed 12:00orange Rain Tue 21:00 to Wed 09:00

A labelled grid, not a map: roughly north at the top and the coast at the left; no borders, no distances. Each cell: the highest red or orange warning of each type on the day and its hours (yellow is not in this feed). IPMA warnings, read

000102030405060708091011121314151617181920212223
Beja BJAwind red · rain red · sea orange
Faro FARwind red · rain red · sea orange
Setúbal STBwind red · rain red · sea orange
Lisboa LSBwind red · rain red · sea orange
Leiria LRAwind red · rain red
Portalegre PTGwind red · rain red
Santarém STMwind red · rain red
Madeira, mountains MRMwind red · rain red
Évora EVRwind red · rain orange
Castelo Branco CBOwind orange · rain red
Madeira, north coast MCNwind orange · rain red
Madeira, south coast MCSwind orange · rain red
Aveiro AVRrain orange
Braga BRGrain orange
Bragança BGCrain orange
Coimbra CBRwind orange · rain orange
Guarda GDAwind orange · rain orange
Porto PTOrain orange
Porto Santo MPSwind orange · rain orange
Viana do Castelo VCTrain orange
Vila Real VRLrain orange
Viseu VISrain orange

The live dashboard (the decision graph, the weather, the timeline) · The meteorologist's analysis (labelled as analysis)