Timeline (UTC, 10 to 11 November 2026)
Newest first (from 18:58, at the incident conductor's takeover). Facts and evidence carry their source; anything unofficial says so.
| UTC | Signal or decision | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 00:15 | analysis (incident.media@, labelled): IPMA's move of Lisbon's red rain to 09:00 (sent 21:23) had not been reported by any article title or live-blog entry we could read by 00:15. Limits: matched by title only; SIC, JN, TSF and Renascença refuse automated reads. Who was first on the other facts: red wind (IPMA 07:18): DN live 08:05; Day 2 off (19:09): ECO and TEK 19:41 | research/media/first-on-each-fact.json, ranking.md (f487bfb) |
| 11 Nov, 00:00 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, hypothesis, confidence low to medium): the official and model data are consistent with the centre passing very close to Lisbon at about 17:00 to 18:00 Wednesday, more likely just south of it (met.no's pressure minimum 986.7 hPa at 17:00 to 18:00 and a 160° wind swing in an hour; the guidance has moved). Against: IPMA's red wind unchanged, its track text already includes Lisbon, no communiqué no. 3, point models move. It does not lower the danger: the worst moves toward the passage, about 16:00 to 19:00, and a lull near the centre is not the end. Wednesday tests it: wind backing east then north and pressure near 987 hPa means it passed south | data/weather/analysis.md section 7 (d6e8aace1) |
| 10 Nov, 23:58 | analysis (incident.media@, labelled): the press on Day 2 after Web Summit's 19:09 page: ECO and TEK 19:41 (32 min later), DN 19:49, Lusa via Notícias ao Minuto 20:01, Observador 20:08, Euronews 20:29, Expresso 20:39; Web Summit's Bluesky still silent on Day 2 at 23:51; 87 of 212 press items read carry Lusa's by-line, across 6 outlets. Limits: six outlets refuse automated reads and are absent, not silent | research/media/coverage.json, ranking.md (incident.media@, 96ff00c) |
| 10 Nov, 23:50 | signal (unofficial, unverified): a public weather page on Facebook shows the storm's track further south than first forecast, toward Lisbon and just south of it; the image is undated and the page is not IPMA. To compare with IPMA's next communiqué; IPMA's own text keeps "entre Sines e o Cabo Carvoeiro" with high uncertainty | watcher@web-summit.jose, at Jose's word (SGit-AI__Website__Web-Summit 6745608, people/jose/watcher/signals/2026-11-10-storm-track.md); not opened by us |
| 10 Nov, 23:54 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): worst window now 09:00 to 18:00, the core 12:00 to 18:00 when both reds overlap; over by 21:00. From IPMA's own issue times (CAP): red wind was sent Tue 07:18 (not 08:31 as the press had it): 28.7 h ahead; red rain 19.5 h; the move to 09:00, 11.6 h | data/weather/analysis.md section 6 |
| 10 Nov, 23:53 | No post on Web Summit's blog after "Important event update" (19:09); nothing new on public Mastodon since 21:45 | websummit.com/blog, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 6) |
| 10 Nov, 23:52 | signal: Lisbon airport: ANA expects flight cancellations on Wednesday ("Operations at Lisbon, Faro and Madeira airports will be affected") | Madeira Island News, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 6); ANA's own notice not read by us |
| 10 Nov, 23:53 | IPMA moved Lisbon's red rain warning three hours earlier: Wednesday 09:00 to 18:00 (was 12:00 to 18:00; supersedes s-1110T1742); orange rain now 00:00 to 09:00; red wind unchanged (12:00 to 21:00). IPMA sent the change at 21:23 (its CAP message); its open-data feed showed it only from the 23:51 read | IPMA warnings open data, read at source by the lead 23:53; MeteoAlarm's CAP feed (data/weather/cap.json, incident.meteorologist@, 169445ff3) |
| 10 Nov, 23:24 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): the TAF's peak (09:00 to 16:00) and IPMA's model peak (19:00 to 20:00) disagree, so the peak is widened back to 12:00 to 18:00; end 21:00; Thursday morning behind the storm, medium confidence; a weaker airport forecast is not a downgrade of IPMA's warning | data/weather/analysis.md section 5 |
| 10 Nov, 23:23 | The first airport TAF covering Thursday (issued 23:00) is weaker than 17:00's: Wed 09:00 to 16:00 at times 30 kt gusting 45 (83 km/h); 30% chance (was 40%) of 58 kt thunderstorm gusts 10:00 to 18:00; west 12 kt from 18:00 to 20:00; Thursday 00:00 to 06:00 west 12 kt, no gusts. IPMA's red warnings unchanged | LPPT TAF (IPMA, via NOAA's Aviation Weather), data/weather/airport.json (incident.meteorologist@, a63ac9696) |
| 10 Nov, 21:53 | No further statement from Web Summit (social.watch@'s sweep 4); still open: Wednesday's talks, the PITCH semi-final (when it was set is in conflict: Wednesday 17:00 in social.watch@'s summary, unsourced there; Thursday in Tech Times' preview of 9 Nov), side events (Web Summit's own Night Summit still listed for Wednesday 18:00 to 00:00, no notice, 22:05), tickets | social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, sweep 4 (21:51 to 21:53); incident.researcher@ (22:05) |
| 10 Nov, 21:41 | signal: a speaker says in public that Day 2 is cancelled and his talks and press conference stay on Thursday (the first sign that Thursday's programme holds for some speakers) | Jon S. von Tetzchner on Mastodon, via social.watch@ (sweep 4) |
| 10 Nov, 21:32 | Web Summit's blog listing shows the update post modified 20:06; its text unchanged on Day 2 and Day 3 ("aims to proceed") | websummit.com, incident.dev@'s 2-min watch (data/watch/websummit.json) |
| 10 Nov, 21:18 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): IPMA's hourly model changed its values (same 07:55 stamp): Wednesday's strongest mean wind now 23 km/h at 20:00 (was 49 at 18:00); the swing to north 18:00; peak most likely 17:00 to 20:00 (was 15:00 to 19:00); worst window 12:00 to 18:00 and end 21:00 unchanged; IPMA's red warnings unchanged and outrank one model | data/weather/analysis.md section 4 (1b936db20) |
| 10 Nov, 21:15 | The incident moves to its own site: https://storm-charles.promptugal.news (this repository); first push to served 23 s (v0.1.2), against 3 to 10 minutes on web-summit.sgit.ai | incident.conductor@, at Dinis's word |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 | signal: the cancellation in the international press (PT and EN); coast and riverside access prohibited Wednesday; nothing on refunds or PITCH | Euronews EN, PT, via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 20:08 | signal: organisers will contact those affected directly; not said whether Wednesday's programme is cancelled or moved (N6 still open) | Observador, via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 19:52 | Checked by the lead: websummit.com home and news list carry no notice of Day 2 (the notice was already up at /blog/web-summit/ since 19:09, a path we did not check) | websummit.com, read 19:52 by incident.conductor@ |
| 10 Nov, 19:49 | signal: Thursday resumes "if the weather allows" (DN's wording; RTP's "as planned, after the storm"; the organisers' own page: "aims to proceed") | Diário de Notícias, via social.watch@ (sweep 3) |
| 10 Nov, 19:46 | signal: organisers will hold Thursday "conforme planeado, após a passagem da tempestade Charles"; people affected will be contacted directly | RTP, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:45 | signal: organisers cancel all of Wednesday's activities (coastal flooding, wind on outdoor structures, transport), after coordinating with the authorities | Diário de Notícias, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:42 | Public: "Após recomendação do Governo, Paddy suspende Web Summit na quarta-feira"; the organisers quoted: the government "informou formalmente a Web Summit" of the risks | Jornal de Negócios, live, 19:42, read 19:52 by incident.conductor@ (also by social.watch@ at 19:53) |
| 10 Nov, 19:41 | signal: Web Summit closed on Wednesday after talks with the government, ANEPC and PSP; the mayor calls it the most sensible decision | ECO, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (sweep 2) |
| 10 Nov, 19:38 | DECISION: Web Summit's Day 2, Wednesday 11 November, will not take place. The government "formally advised" it (tidal flooding, public transport, high winds on external structures), after talks with the government, ANEPC and PSP; Day 3, Thursday 12 November, aimed to go ahead as planned | Web Summit's email to attendees (no public URL), relayed by weather@PrompTugal.vicky (b23e846, 19:48) and conductor@web-summit.dinis (19:52) |
| 10 Nov, 19:09 | PRIMARY: Web Summit's own page, "Important event update": "Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th) will not take place"; "Web Summit aims to proceed with Day 3 (Thursday, November 12) as planned, following the passing of Storm Charles"; reasons: tidal flooding, disruption to public transport, high winds on external structures; "Web Summit will communicate directly with those impacted". Under /blog/web-summit/, not in the news list; we did not watch that path | websummit.com (page data: published 19:09:00, modified 19:25:44; found by social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis, read at source by the lead 20:58) |
| 10 Nov, 19:05 | No Web Summit decision on Wednesday: websummit.com (home, /news/, sitemap), its official Bluesky (last post 17:36, "wrap on Day 1") and Jornal de Negócios live (last entry 18:24) | incident.researcher@ (message to the lead, 19:06) |
| 10 Nov, 19:05 | analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): worst window Wed 12:00 to 18:00, peak most likely ~15:00 to 19:00 around the wind's swing to north-west, easing but dangerous to 21:00; red wind was known ~27.5 h ahead; confidence medium on the window, low on the peak | data/weather/analysis.md (from IPMA warnings, communiqué no. 2, LPPT TAF, IPMA model, read 19:01) |
| 10 Nov, 19:01 | No Web Summit decision on Wednesday found (organiser channels readable without a login) | incident.researcher@, data/decisions/ (145a2b8) |
| 10 Nov, 18:58 | Lead handed over: incident.conductor@web-summit.dinis takes the lead of WS-214 from conductor@web-summit.dinis, at Dinis's word (team/incidents/BRIEF.md); the timeline is kept newest first from here | this folder; BRIEF.md |
| 10 Nov, 18:53 | Organisers checked again: no decision on Wednesday; their last line is still "assessing with ANEPC and PSP" | The Portugal News (updated 14:29), via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 18:36 | Vicky's weather desk full check: IPMA's two red warnings for Lisbon unchanged since 17:42 (wind 12:00 to 21:00, rain 12:00 to 18:00); no Web Summit change | desks/weather-vicky/live.md (snapshot data/2026-11-10T1836Z.json) |
| 10 Nov, ~18:35 | Incident declared (P1, run on account A) at Dinis's word | this folder |
| 10 Nov, 18:25 | signal: no organiser statement after the government's recommendation (the live blog's last update read) | Jornal de Negócios, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 18:06 | signal (unofficial): an attendee post says the event is "most likely" closed tomorrow; speculation, not an announcement | Mastodon post, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 17:53 | signal: the government recommends suspending Web Summit on Wednesday; the decision rests with the organisers | Jornal de Negócios, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 17:43 | Web Summit: no change to Wednesday's programme announced on its homepage or news page | websummit.com, read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 17:42 | IPMA raises Lisbon's rain warning to red, Wednesday 12:00 to 18:00 | IPMA open data, read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 17:07 | signal: water enters a pavilion between halls 4 and 5; participants leave early | Jornal de Negócios, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, ~17:00 | Dinis: the storm is our case study (a dynamic team, the decision graph) | PrompTugal guidance 2026-11-10-the-storm-as-our-case-study.md |
| 10 Nov, 15:19 | signal: the storm leaves Web Summit with a thin audience | Jornal de Negócios, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 14:25 | signal: Web Summit in doubt; Tagus bridges limited to 60 km/h; Lisbon tunnels closed from midnight; Metro keeps running | TEK Notícias, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 14:23 | IPMA red warning for wind, Lisbon district, Wednesday 12:00 to 21:00 (first read by the newsroom) | S41; desks/weather-vicky/live.md |
| 10 Nov, 13:19 | signal: Lisbon's mayor: "Tudo indica que a Web Summit não poderá funcionar amanhã"; the decision is the Interior Ministry's and the organisers' | Jornal Económico, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 12:45 | signal: Web Summit's organisers following the alerts with ANEPC and PSP; no sign yet of cancelling Wednesday | Jornal de Negócios, live, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
| 10 Nov, 12:10 | The government declares an alert situation for the mainland on Wednesday, 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services close; outdoor events suspended | portugal.gov.pt (page dated 12:10; S41 updated with it at 17:27), read by weather@ |
| 10 Nov, 08:46 | signal: IPMA expects the storm earlier, Wednesday morning; Lisbon among the hardest hit; avoid unnecessary travel (Lusa) | AWAY (IOL), via Lusa, via social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis |
Signals from social.watch@PrompTugal.dinis (the incident's signals desk, confirmed by Dinis at about 18:42 UTC): PrompTugal__News__Website board/team/social.watch/signals/2026-11-11-the-storm.md. Sweep 1 ran 18:45 to 18:50 UTC (its first labels said 19:20; corrected by social.watch@ in df4adcd7d). Organisers checked again at 18:53 UTC: no decision; their last line is still "assessing with ANEPC and PSP" (The Portugal News, updated 14:29).