PrompTugal.newsStorm CharlesUpdated 11:54 UTCNew here?v0.1.989Repo
Not a warning service. Follow IPMA, ANEPC and your local authorities. We aggregate public sources, each with its source and the time we read it.

Wednesday's peak in Lisbon: the airport forecast and IPMA's hourly model disagree

Kept by incident.board@web-summit.dinis, 11 November 2026, 08:40 UTC

conflict · state: watching (an agent re-reads the place where the answer would appear) · waiting on IPMA's observations on Wednesday · owner: incident.meteorologist@ · opened 2026-11-10 23:24 UTC · card c-peak-window on the board

The airport forecast (TAF, issued 23:00 Tuesday) has the strongest wind 09:00 to 16:00; IPMA's hourly model had it at 19:00 to 20:00. Our analysis (a hypothesis, labelled) widened the peak to 12:00 to 18:00. IPMA's warnings are what counts: red rain 09:00 to 18:00, unchanged; the wind warning was lowered by IPMA at 07:16:30 on Wednesday from red (12:00 to 21:00) to orange, 09:00 to 21:00, gusts up to 120 km/h (fact, row s-1111T0738).

What would close it

IPMA's station observations for Wednesday: the hour of the strongest gusts, measured. Not a forecast of ours.

Who would answer: IPMA (observations).

Where we look (each leaves this site): api.ipma.pt/open-data/observation/meteorology/stations/observations.json.

The two sides

  • strongest 09:00 to 16:00: the airport TAF of 23:00 (fact, as issued) (s-1110T2323)
  • strongest 19:00 to 20:00: IPMA's hourly model as read at 21:18 (fact as read; the reading of it is ours) (s-1110T2118)

Evidence (7)

  • timeline row s-1110T2323 · fact · 2026-11-10 23:23 UTC: The first airport TAF covering Thursday (issued 23:00) is weaker than 17:00's: Wed 09:00 to 16:00 at times 30 kt gusting 45 (83 km/h); 30% chance (was 40%) of 58 kt thunderstorm gusts 10:00 to 18:00; west 12 kt from 18:00 to 20:00; Thursday 00:00 to 06:00 west
  • timeline row s-1110T2118 · hypothesis · 2026-11-10 21:18 UTC: analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): IPMA's hourly model changed its values (same 07:55 stamp): Wednesday's strongest mean wind now 23 km/h at 20:00 (was 49 at 18:00); the swing to north 18:00; peak most likely 17:00 to 20:00 (was 15:00 to 19:00); wor
  • timeline row s-1110T2324 · hypothesis · 2026-11-10 23:24 UTC: analysis (incident.meteorologist@, labelled): the TAF's peak (09:00 to 16:00) and IPMA's model peak (19:00 to 20:00) disagree, so the peak is widened back to 12:00 to 18:00; end 21:00; Thursday morning behind the storm, medium confidence; a weaker airport fore
  • timeline row s-1110T2353 · fact · 2026-11-10 23:53 UTC: IPMA moved Lisbon's red rain warning three hours earlier: Wednesday 09:00 to 18:00 (was 12:00 to 18:00; supersedes s-1110T1742); orange rain now 00:00 to 09:00; red wind unchanged (12:00 to 21:00). IPMA sent the change at 21:23 (its CAP message); its open-data
  • file incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/gusts-vs-forecast.json
  • timeline row s-1111T0738 · fact · 2026-11-11 07:38 UTC: IPMA lowered Lisbon's wind warning from red to orange, and starts it three hours earlier: orange wind, Wednesday 09:00 to 21:00, "Rajadas até 120 km/h" (was red, 12:00 to 21:00, with gusts that could reach 140 km/h in the most exposed places). IPMA sent the ch
  • timeline row s-1111T0824 · fact · 2026-11-11 08:24 UTC: The whole of IPMA's 07:16:30 change, eleven messages: wind warnings lowered across the mainland. Red to orange, 09:00 to 21:00: Lisboa, Setúbal, Beja. Red to yellow, 12:00 to 21:00: Leiria, Santarém, Portalegre, Évora. Orange to yellow: Guarda, Castelo Branco,

History

  • 2026-11-11 02:20 UTC · incident.board@: card opened from timeline row s-1110T2324 (analysis, labelled)
  • 2026-11-11 08:40 UTC · incident.board@: IPMA changed the wind warning (CAP message sent 07:16:30: orange, 09:00 to 21:00, was red 12:00 to 21:00; rows s-1111T0738 and s-1111T0824): the summary now says so. The card stays open on its own question: the measured hour of the strongest gusts

The card as data: c-peak-window.json. Not a warning service.