Extract a decision

Not a warning service: for warnings follow IPMA and ANEPC. Nothing here is a forecast or advice. Part of Other models, measured.

From a short official passage, say who decided and which hours the decision covers. The gold answer is the decision graph's own edge (kept by incident.researcher@): its decider and its effect window, which the graph fills 'only from the source's own words' and leaves null where the source gives no clock hours. So most answers here are null on purpose: the test is also whether a model invents hours.

Scoring: each field exact; an item is right when all three are. The model's one-line 'what' is published and not scored.. Last run 2026-11-11 02:56 UTC. Source for every figure on this page: results.json (made 2026-11-11 03:06 UTC from the runs) and ledger-summary.json.

The instruction

The same for every model (the item follows it as the user's message):

You read one short official passage about Storm Charles (Portugal, 10 to 12 November 2026) and record the decision in it. Answer with one JSON object and nothing else: no explanation, no code fence.
Keys: "decider" (the id of the body that decided or warned, from the list below), "what" (one short English line), "effect_from_utc" and "effect_to_utc" (the hours the decision covers, UTC, written YYYY-MM-DDTHH:MMZ; Lisbon and Madeira are on UTC in November).
Rule: fill a time only when the passage itself states the clock hour; a day, a night or "Wednesday" without an hour is null. Never infer an hour.
Deciders:
ipma: IPMA (Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera)
anepc: ANEPC (Autoridade Nacional de Emergência e Proteção Civil)
government: Government of Portugal (Council of Ministers)
mai: Ministry of Internal Administration (MAI)
pm: Prime Minister
camara-lisboa: Câmara Municipal de Lisboa (mayor, municipal civil protection)
schools: Schools (Ministry of Education)
metro: Metropolitano de Lisboa
carris: Carris
cp: CP (Comboios de Portugal) and Infraestruturas de Portugal
lusoponte: Lusoponte (25 de Abril and Vasco da Gama bridges)
tunnels: Lisbon road tunnels (city)
ferries: Transtejo Soflusa (Tagus ferries)
rede-expressos: Rede Expressos (intercity coaches)
airport: Lisbon airport (ANA, Humberto Delgado) and airlines
amn: Autoridade Marítima Nacional and the Port of Lisbon
venue: Venue operators: MEO Arena and FIL
websummit: Web Summit (the organisers)
side-events: Side events on Wednesday (e.g. Dear Gatekeepers Live, MEO Arena studio; Night Summit)
fertagus: Fertagus (trains across the 25 de Abril bridge)
carris-metropolitana: Carris Metropolitana
flixbus: FlixBus
pitch: PITCH (Web Summit's startup competition)
night-summit: Night Summit (Web Summit's own evening events)
madeira-gov: Governo Regional da Madeira
madeira-prociv: Serviço Regional de Proteção Civil (Madeira)
madeira-airport: Madeira airport (ANA) and airlines
apram: APRAM (Administração dos Portos da Madeira)
aemet: AEMET (Spain's meteorological agency)
gnr: GNR (Guarda Nacional Republicana)
mmp: Museus e Monumentos de Portugal (MMP)
tap: TAP Air Portugal
csm: Conselho Superior da Magistratura (courts)
mj: Ministry of Justice
capitania-lisboa: Capitania do Porto de Lisboa (harbour master, Autoridade Marítima Nacional)

The table

The field columns count the first run. "Changed between runs": items a row got right in one run and wrong in another, at temperature 0.

Reading (ours, a hypothesis): The errors are of two kinds, and both are the ones a curator must not make. Inventing hours: asked for the window of IPMA's communiqué sentence, which gives none, three small models filled in the communiqué's issue time, and one gave the metro's 'nights of 10 to 11 and 11 to 12' clock hours it does not state. Naming the wrong decider: two models gave the Government for Web Summit's own sentence 'will respect the Government's direction, and accordingly, Day 2 will not take place' (the organisers decided; the government advised), and the smallest gave Madeira's civil protection for IPMA's warnings in Madeira. Ten items: enough to see the kinds of error, not to rank the models that made none.

Item by item

First run of each row.

d01

Published at: portugal.gov.pt (the Government's declaration)

Declarar a situação de alerta em todo o território do Continente, entre as 00h00 do dia 11 de novembro de 2026 e as 23h59 do dia 11 de novembro de 2026;

Scored against: {"decider":"government","effect_from_utc":"2026-11-11T00:00Z","effect_to_utc":"2026-11-11T23:59Z"}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge gov-alert (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: portugal.gov.pt, read 2026-11-11 02:17 UTC.

d02

Published at: feeds.meteoalarm.org (IPMA's CAP message)

identifier: 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110071840.PO-01-1915
sent: 2026-11-10T07:18:40+00:00
msgType: Update
event: Aviso Vermelho Vento
severity: Extreme
onset: 2026-11-11T12:00:00+00:00
expires: 2026-11-11T21:00:00+00:00
areaDesc: Lisboa
description: Rajadas até 120 km/h, podendo atingir 140 km/h nos locais mais expostos.

Scored against: {"decider":"ipma","effect_from_utc":"2026-11-11T12:00Z","effect_to_utc":"2026-11-11T21:00Z"}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge ipma-red-wind (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: feeds.meteoalarm.org, read 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC.

d03

Published at: feeds.meteoalarm.org (IPMA's CAP message)

identifier: 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110212300.PO-10-6290
sent: 2026-11-10T21:23:00+00:00
msgType: Update
event: Aviso Vermelho Precipitação
severity: Extreme
onset: 2026-11-11T09:00:00+00:00
expires: 2026-11-11T18:00:00+00:00
areaDesc: Lisboa
description: Precipitação forte e persistente.

Scored against: {"decider":"ipma","effect_from_utc":"2026-11-11T09:00Z","effect_to_utc":"2026-11-11T18:00Z"}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge ipma-red-rain-0900 (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: feeds.meteoalarm.org, read 2026-11-10 23:51 UTC.

d04

Published at: feeds.meteoalarm.org (IPMA's CAP message)

identifier: 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1232
sent: 2026-11-10T06:14:54+00:00
msgType: Update
event: Aviso Vermelho Precipitação
onset: 2026-11-10T21:00:00+00:00
expires: 2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00
areaDesc: Madeira - Costa Sul

Scored against: {"decider":"ipma","effect_from_utc":"2026-11-10T21:00Z","effect_to_utc":"2026-11-11T06:00Z"}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json identifier 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110061454.MD-10-1232 (onset, expires; the publisher of the warnings is IPMA). Source of the text: feeds.meteoalarm.org, read 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC. Note: no edge in the decision graph: the answer is the CAP message's own onset and expires.

d05

Published at: feeds.meteoalarm.org (IPMA's CAP message)

identifier: 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110205239.MD-10-1237
sent: 2026-11-10T20:52:39+00:00
msgType: Update
event: Aviso Vermelho Precipitação
onset: 2026-11-10T21:00:00+00:00
expires: 2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00
areaDesc: Madeira - Costa Norte

Scored against: {"decider":"ipma","effect_from_utc":"2026-11-10T21:00Z","effect_to_utc":"2026-11-11T06:00Z"}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/weather/cap.json identifier 2.49.0.0.620.0.PT.261110205239.MD-10-1237 (onset, expires; the publisher of the warnings is IPMA). Source of the text: feeds.meteoalarm.org, read 2026-11-11 01:46 UTC. Note: no edge in the decision graph: the answer is the CAP message's own onset and expires.

d06

Published at: ipma.pt (communiqué no. 2, issued 10 November 17:07)

Devido a esta situação foram emitidos avisos meteorológicos de nível VERMELHO e LARANJA, não se excluindo a possibilidade de agravamento em algumas regiões após as próximas atualizações dos modelos numéricos de previsão do tempo, aconselhando-se, por esse motivo, o seu acompanhamento.

Scored against: {"decider":"ipma","effect_from_utc":null,"effect_to_utc":null}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge ipma-communique-2 (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: www.ipma.pt, read 2026-11-10 19:01 UTC.

d07

Published at: websummit.com (the organisers' page 'Important event update')

Web Summit will of course respect the Government's direction, and accordingly, Day 2 (Wednesday, November 11th) will not take place.

Scored against: {"decider":"websummit","effect_from_utc":null,"effect_to_utc":null}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge websummit-wednesday (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: websummit.com, read 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC.

d08

Published at: websummit.com (the organisers' page 'Important event update')

Web Summit aims to proceed with Day 3 (Thursday, November 12) as planned, following the passing of Storm Charles.

Scored against: {"decider":"websummit","effect_from_utc":null,"effect_to_utc":null}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge websummit-thursday (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: websummit.com, read 2026-11-10 20:59 UTC.

d09

Published at: aemet.es (the warnings page)

Aviso especial. Lluvias fuertes y persistentes, rachas muy fuertes y temporal marítimo

Scored against: {"decider":"aemet","effect_from_utc":null,"effect_to_utc":null}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge aemet-special (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: www.aemet.es, read 2026-11-11 01:50 UTC.

d10

Published at: metrolisboa.pt (the operator's notice on its contingency plan for homeless people)

durante as noites de 10 para 11 e de 11 para 12 de novembro

Scored against: {"decider":"metro","effect_from_utc":null,"effect_to_utc":null}, from incidents/2026-11-10-storm-charles/data/decisions/graph.json edge metro-shelter (by, effect_from_utc, effect_to_utc; label fact). Source of the text: www.metrolisboa.pt, read 2026-11-10 23:33 UTC.