PrompTugal News · storm-charles.promptugal.news · Decision brief
Edition 2 · as of (Lisbon time) · SC-BRIEF-20261111-E2
Not an official warning. IPMA issues the warnings and ANEPC the instructions. Not a warning service: no forecast or advice of ours.
Next edition: At the next big change: an IPMA message, Web Summit's word on Day 3, or the end of the storm; then an "after the storm" edition, forecast beside observations.
Live: storm-charles.promptugal.news · this brief: /brief/
Edition 2. What changed since edition 1 (11:40): who is exposed (residents under each level, hour by hour; Lisbon's municipalities and 49 squares), the ECMWF ensemble's shares of tracks, a modelled tide (high water about 15:10 at Lisbon, inside the red rain window), and Carris and Fertagus read at their own pages. IPMA's warnings are unchanged since 07:16.
Fact IPMA's red warnings now cover eight mainland districts, home to about 4.93 million residents (Census 2021), from 12:00 to 18:00: red rain in Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja, Faro, Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco and Portalegre, and red wind in Faro to 21:00 (gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly 140 km/h in exposed places). Residents are where people live, not where they are now. IPMA warnings, open data, read · incident.datascience@, residents by hour (IPMA × INE), read
Fact In Lisbon the rain is heavy and steady (3 to 6.5 mm an hour at each city station, 07:00 to 10:00); the wind is far below the warning (the airport observed 17 km/h and no gust at 11:00). IPMA's wind warning for Lisbon is orange to 21:00. IPMA station observations, read · Lisbon airport METAR, read
Hypothesis Nine in ten of the ECMWF ensemble's 51 forecasts bring the centre near or south of Lisbon, crossing off Lisbon at about 15:00, close to a modelled high water at about 15:10: rain at high tide is the hour to watch. These are shares of forecasts, not the chance of it happening; IPMA's warnings decide. ECMWF ensemble via Open-Meteo (incident.datascience@), read · tide model (Open-Meteo Marine), read
| District · hazard | 00 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 00 | IPMA's window (UTC) | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | orange 12:00–21:00, yellow 21:00–Thu 03:00 | ||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Rest of the mainland (red and orange only) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Beja · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Castelo Branco · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Wind | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Leiria · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Portalegre · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Santarém · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aveiro · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Beja · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Beja · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Braga · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Bragança · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Coimbra · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Évora · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Guarda · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Porto · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Viana do Castelo · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Vila Real · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Viseu · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Madeira | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Funchal · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Madeira, mountains · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Madeira, north coast · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Porto Santo · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Hypothesis Where the storm's centre crosses 9.5° W, off Lisbon, in each of the ECMWF ensemble's 51 forecasts. Shares of forecasts, not the chance of it happening.
North of Lisbon
10%
Near Lisbon
41%
South of Lisbon
49%
Hypothesis Median crossing: . Highest model gust at Lisbon: median 69.1 km/h; one forecast in ten above 85 km/h, one in ten below 55.4 km/h, all of them under the 120 km/h in IPMA's orange warning. A model at a point, on a 25 km grid: confidence medium for the north/near/south split (a clear low on a 25 km grid); low for the gust values. ECMWF IFS ensemble, via Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0), read
| Who | Decision | Published (UTC) | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government of Portugal | Alert situation for the whole mainland, Wednesday 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services closed; outdoor events suspended. timeline · source | 10 Nov 12:10 | Fact |
| Web Summit | Day 2 (Wednesday) will not take place, on the government's formal advice; Day 3 (Thursday) "aims to proceed as planned". timeline · source | 10 Nov 19:09 | Fact |
| Lisbon City Council (mayor) | All of Lisbon's road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too. record | 10 Nov 13:16 (press) | Evidence |
| CP and Infraestruturas de Portugal | Four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge suppressed, 12:00 to 15:00. record | 10 Nov 23:10 (press) | Evidence |
| Lusoponte | Vasco da Gama bridge limited to 100 km/h because of the weather. timeline | 11 Nov 09:24 (Lusa) | Evidence |
| Carris (Lisbon buses and trams) | Service kept with priority to essential journeys; trams 12E, 15E, 18E, 24E, 25E and 28E interrupted; Graça funicular closed since 10:40; Web Summit shuttles cancelled. Fertagus trains: normal service, confirmed at 10:40. timeline · source | read 11:52 at source (no update time on the page) | Evidence |
| Transtejo Soflusa | River crossings between Lisbon and the south bank kept running from 05:00 (one crossing, Porto Brandão–Trafaria–Belém, reported suspended in the morning). record | 10 Nov 18:57; 11 Nov 05:44 (press) | Evidence |
| TAP Air Portugal | Operations adjusted; tickets for travel to 11 Nov may be changed without penalty to flights up to 17 Nov. record | 10 Nov 16:09 (press) | Evidence |
| Lisbon's hospitals | Wednesday's scheduled activity rescheduled (which hospitals: not stated). record | 10 Nov 18:29 (Lusa headline) | Evidence |
| Madeira's Regional Civil Protection (SRPC) | Schools closed Wednesday morning, reopening from 13:00. 205 occurrences to 09:00, none classed as serious. record | 10 Nov 11:26; 11 Nov 09:00 (press) | Evidence |
Every decision with its addresses and the time read: decisions and the entity files (incident.researcher@). Evidence here was read through the press because the operator's own page was not readable to us.
Rain, Lisbon: high · Wind, Lisbon: low · Worst window: medium · Track of the centre: medium · Sea and tide: medium · Madeira: high · End of the event: medium
| Topic | IPMA (Fact) | Forecasts and models (Fact) | Observed (Fact) | Press (Evidence) | Agree or differ | Our assessment (Hypothesis) | Confidence (ours) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain, Lisbon | Red, 09:00–18:00: "strong and persistent" | TAF: rain all afternoon, heavy with a 30% thunderstorm chance 12:00–16:00 | 3–6.5 mm an hour at the four city stations, 07:00–10:00; 15 to 24 mm in the five hours 06:00–10:00 | Heavy rain about 11:00–15:00, easing after about 18:00 (radio, 10:38) | agree | What is observed matches the red rain warning in timing and character. | high |
| Wind, Lisbon | Orange, 09:00–21:00: gusts up to 120 km/h (lowered from red at 07:16) | TAF lowered twice: at times 65 km/h gusts, 30% chance of 102 km/h in thunderstorms; ECMWF ensemble gusts at Lisbon: median 69, 90th percentile 85 km/h | Airport 17 km/h, no gust (11:00); highest gust since Tuesday 67 km/h (Tue 11:00) | Reports the lowered warning; some attribute more to IPMA than it wrote | differ | So far far below the warning; the forecasts have come down toward the observations. Gusts near the warned strength would most likely come only in thunderstorms. | low |
| Worst window | Warnings overlap 12:00–18:00 (red rain, orange wind, orange sea) | TAF: strongest groups 12:00–16:00, quieter from 16:00–18:00 | Pressure 998 hPa at 11:00 and falling | 11:00–15:00 (radio) | mostly agree | The early afternoon, to about 16:00, is the window the sources share; the peak hour within it is not known. | medium |
| Track of the centre | Communiqué no. 2 (10 Nov 17:07): toward the mainland, "high uncertainty in track and intensity" | ECMWF ensemble (51 forecasts): 49% south of Lisbon, 41% near, 10% north; median crossing about 15:00 | Wind backing south-south-east to east-south-east with falling pressure | Track moved south, toward the Algarve (radio, 10:38; not IPMA in writing) | mostly agree | North of Lisbon is now the outlier; near or south, as the observed wind and Faro's red wind suggest. Which of the two is open. | medium |
| Sea and tide | Orange sea, 12:00–21:00: waves 5–7 m, up to 13 m; yellow to 03:00 | IPMA's model: sea 3–3.5 m Thursday morning; tide model: high water about 15:10 (1.25 m), next about 03:10 Thursday | No gauge or buoy in our data; Instituto Hidrográfico's official table needs an account (not read) | Rain at high tide may hinder drainage (live blog, 08:27) | no conflict | High water falls inside the red rain window; the warning is the written word on the sea. | medium |
| Madeira | Red rain to 06:00, then orange; orange wind to 12:00 (130 km/h in the mountains) | n/a | 249.5 mm in six hours at Areeiro (01:00–06:00); airport wind dropped from 89 km/h gusts at 07:00 to 13 km/h at 08:00 | Regional president: 479 mm somewhere on the island; 205 occurrences, none serious | agree | The worst has passed Madeira; the risk now is what the rain left (slopes, streams), which only the regional civil protection can state. | high |
| End of the event | Lisbon: rain to 18:00, wind and sea to 21:00, yellow sea to 03:00; nothing above yellow on Thursday | TAF: no significant weather from about 18:00; showers on Thursday | n/a yet | Easing after about 18:00 | agree | Thursday morning looks like showers and a westerly wind, not a storm; Web Summit's Day 3 word is still awaited. | medium |
Confidence is ours: HIGH where the official word, the forecasts and the observations agree; MEDIUM where they agree in outline but one is missing or vague; LOW where they differ. It is a judgement about our reading, not a probability of the weather. Sources: warnings, airport (METAR, TAF), stations, IPMA's and MET Norway's runs, IPMA's communiqués, the meteorologist's analysis, the timeline.
Fact Residents (INE, Census 2021) of each IPMA warning area, counted under the highest level in force there in each hour, any hazard: arithmetic on two facts, IPMA's windows and INE's counts. Where people live, not where they are at a given hour, and never a count of people harmed. Hours before about 07:00 are not drawn (earlier warnings had left IPMA's file).
| District under red | Residents | Aged 65+ | Red hazard | Red window (UTC) | Hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisboa | 2,275,385 | 489,002 | Rain | 09:00–18:00 | 9 |
| Setúbal | 874,806 | 198,700 | Rain | 09:00–18:00 | 9 |
| Faro | 467,343 | 110,949 | Rain and Wind | 09:00–21:00 | 12 |
| Leiria | 458,605 | 116,927 | Rain | 12:00–18:00 | 6 |
| Santarém | 424,973 | 116,203 | Rain | 12:00–18:00 | 6 |
| Castelo Branco | 177,962 | 57,439 | Rain | 12:00–18:00 | 6 |
| Beja | 144,401 | 38,383 | Rain | 09:00–18:00 | 9 |
| Portalegre | 104,923 | 31,378 | Rain | 12:00–18:00 | 6 |
| All eight | 4,928,398 | 1,158,981 | |||
Evidence 155 hospitals are mapped in OpenStreetMap in these eight districts (86 in the Lisbon metropolitan area): a map of buildings, not a statement that any is open or has capacity. OSM via HOT export (ODbL), read
| Municipality (Lisbon metropolitan area) | Residents Fact | Aged 65+ Fact | Low land, km² Hypothesis | Residents on it Hypothesis | Hospitals mapped Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisboa | 545,796 | 127,768 | 2.7 | 8,500 | 39 |
| Sintra | 385,606 | 68,885 | 0.1 | 0 | 7 |
| Cascais | 214,124 | 48,461 | 0.4 | 600 | 8 |
| Loures | 201,590 | 44,306 | 9.8 | 5,900 | 3 |
| Almada | 177,238 | 42,185 | 5.1 | 12,700 | 5 |
| Oeiras | 171,658 | 41,248 | 0.7 | 800 | 4 |
| Amadora | 171,454 | 38,087 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Seixal | 166,507 | 35,837 | 4.8 | 8,500 | 1 |
| Odivelas | 148,034 | 30,912 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Vila Franca de Xira | 137,529 | 25,424 | 131.1 | 12,900 | 1 |
| Setúbal | 123,496 | 28,493 | 14.6 | 7,300 | 8 |
| Mafra | 86,515 | 15,375 | 0.6 | 200 | 0 |
| Barreiro | 78,345 | 20,025 | 3.7 | 11,300 | 1 |
| Palmela | 68,852 | 14,564 | 6.2 | 100 | 0 |
| Moita | 66,255 | 14,514 | 6.1 | 12,400 | 0 |
| Montijo | 55,682 | 10,445 | 5.7 | 5,100 | 3 |
| Sesimbra | 52,384 | 10,686 | 1.6 | 100 | 0 |
| Alcochete | 19,143 | 3,407 | 17.5 | 1,800 | 0 |
Low land is where sea or river water can reach first; it is not a flood map and not a warning. LOW to MEDIUM. The DEM is a surface model: roofs and trees lift built-up Lisbon, so low land in the city is UNDER-counted; its vertical error (a few metres) is of the size of the band itself. Heights are above the EGM2008 geoid, close to but not the same as mean sea level or IH's chart datum. Residents on low land assume people spread evenly within a hexagon. Census 2021 counts. INE Census 2021, Copernicus DEM, Kontur, OSM, read
| Place | High water (UTC), height above mean sea level | Next high water | Highest model wave (m) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cascais (Tagus mouth) | · 1.23 m | · 1.05 m | 4.64 |
| Lisbon (Tagus, nearest sea cell) | · 1.25 m | · 1.07 m | 4.5 |
| Funchal | · 0.67 m | · 0.74 m | 4.86 |
Evidence A model, not Instituto Hidrográfico's official tide table (which needs an account; not read). Confidence: MEDIUM for times of high and low water at Cascais and Funchal (astronomical tide well modelled); LOW for Lisbon inside the estuary; storm surge in the model is not verified against a gauge. Open-Meteo Marine (CC BY 4.0), read
| IPMA station | 06:00 | 07:00 | 08:00 | 09:00 | 10:00 | Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 20.2 |
| Lisboa, Carnide (CML) | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 19.6 |
| Lisboa, Amoreiras (LFCL) | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 15.3 |
| Lisboa, Relógio | 2.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 24.0 |
Fact Rain in mm in the hour IPMA labels, IPMA station observations, read .
Fact Lisbon airport at 11:00: wind 17 km/h, no gust reported, +RA BR, visibility 1.24 statute miles, 998 hPa. Highest gust in the hours we hold: 67 km/h (36 kt) at 11:00 on Tuesday. METAR LPPT 111100Z 11009KT 090V150 2000 +RA BR FEW001 BKN004 FEW015TCU 16/16 Q0998 NOSIG METAR, NOAA Aviation Weather, read
Fact Thursday morning (Web Summit's Day 3): no IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow; IPMA's model, run 07:56: mean wind 15.1 to 24.1 km/h from the W, rain chance up to 92%, sea 3 to 3.5 m. IPMA's hourly model, read
| IPMA station | Most rain in 6 hours (mm) | Hours labelled (UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Madeira, Areeiro | 249.5 | 01:00 to 06:00 |
| Madeira, São Vicente | 141.5 | 22:00 to 03:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Santo da Serra | 130.4 | 21:00 to 02:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Pico Alto | 126.8 | 03:00 to 08:00 |
| Madeira, Pico do Areeiro | 123.9 | 20:00 to 01:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Monte | 85.6 | 02:00 to 07:00 |
Fact IPMA station observations, read . IPMA's stations report no gusts; Madeira's gusts are in the airport's METARs.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
Windgusts up to 130 km/h.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, specially in west and east.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
| Airport | Airline departures seen | Hours covered (UTC) | By hour of first detection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon (Humberto Delgado) | 42 | from 06:25 | 116161080 |
| Porto (Francisco Sá Carneiro) | 16 | from 08:44 | 23470 |
| Faro | 0 | from 08:15 | 00000 |
| Funchal (Madeira, Cristiano Ronaldo) | 0 | not covered |
Fact What OpenSky Network's volunteer receivers saw, in our readings today: a floor, not a total; coverage is thin at Faro and Funchal, so a zero there means "not seen", not "none flew". incident.transport@, read .
Still missing; we print no figure until it is read at its own source, with its licence.
| What | Who, from what source | State at 12:05 |
|---|---|---|
| Precedents: Leslie (2018), Elsa (2019) and later storms, highest gust, incidents, customers without power | incident.datascience@ and incident.researcher@ | not yet in our data |
| Tides, official: Instituto Hidrográfico's table for Lisbon, Cascais and Funchal | incident.datascience@ (Instituto Hidrográfico) | this edition uses a model (Open-Meteo Marine); IH's table needs an account and was not read |
| Power cuts: customers without power | incident.datascience@ (E-REDES) | not yet in our data |