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PrompTugal News · storm-charles.promptugal.news · Decision brief

Storm Charles: Portugal and Madeira

Edition 2 · as of (Lisbon time) · SC-BRIEF-20261111-E2

Not an official warning. IPMA issues the warnings and ANEPC the instructions. Not a warning service: no forecast or advice of ours.

Next edition: At the next big change: an IPMA message, Web Summit's word on Day 3, or the end of the storm; then an "after the storm" edition, forecast beside observations.

Live: storm-charles.promptugal.news · this brief: /brief/

Fact read from the body that decides or warnsEvidence reported by others, with its sourceHypothesis our analysis, with its reasonsTimes UTC = Lisbon time. Each figure: its source and the time read.

Edition 2. What changed since edition 1 (11:40): who is exposed (residents under each level, hour by hour; Lisbon's municipalities and 49 squares), the ECMWF ensemble's shares of tracks, a modelled tide (high water about 15:10 at Lisbon, inside the red rain window), and Carris and Fertagus read at their own pages. IPMA's warnings are unchanged since 07:16.

Fact IPMA's red warnings now cover eight mainland districts, home to about 4.93 million residents (Census 2021), from 12:00 to 18:00: red rain in Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja, Faro, Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco and Portalegre, and red wind in Faro to 21:00 (gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly 140 km/h in exposed places). Residents are where people live, not where they are now. IPMA warnings, open data, read · incident.datascience@, residents by hour (IPMA × INE), read

Fact In Lisbon the rain is heavy and steady (3 to 6.5 mm an hour at each city station, 07:00 to 10:00); the wind is far below the warning (the airport observed 17 km/h and no gust at 11:00). IPMA's wind warning for Lisbon is orange to 21:00. IPMA station observations, read · Lisbon airport METAR, read

Hypothesis Nine in ten of the ECMWF ensemble's 51 forecasts bring the centre near or south of Lisbon, crossing off Lisbon at about 15:00, close to a modelled high water at about 15:10: rain at high tide is the hour to watch. These are shares of forecasts, not the chance of it happening; IPMA's warnings decide. ECMWF ensemble via Open-Meteo (incident.datascience@), read · tide model (Open-Meteo Marine), read

Highest IPMA level per district, WednesdayAveiro: orangeBragança: orangeBeja · redBraga: orangeCastelo Branco · redCoimbra: orangeÉvora: orangeFaro · redGuarda: orangeLeiria · redLisboa · redPortalegre · redPorto: orangeSetúbal · redSantarém · redViana do Castelo: orangeViseu: orangeVila Real: orange
Fact The highest level per district today, from the same feed (dots at each district's seat, as IPMA lists it; no outlines drawn). Named on the map: Lisbon and the districts under red. The rest:Yellow is not held beyond Lisbon.

What to watch, hour by hour

  1. Fact In force from 12:00: orange sea for Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja and Faro (south-west waves 5 to 7 m, up to 13 m maximum, to 21:00), and red rain in four more districts (Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco, Portalegre). IPMA warnings
  2. Fact Lisbon airport's forecast (TAF 11:00): at times south 20 kt gusting 35 (65 km/h) in rain; a 30% chance of thunderstorms with 40 kt gusting 55 (102 km/h). Lisbon TAF
  3. Evidence CP suppresses four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge in the window it calls the most critical. CP, via the press
  4. Evidence Madeira's schools reopen (closed in the morning by the regional civil protection). SRPC Madeira, via the press
  5. Hypothesis The ensemble's median time for the centre to cross off Lisbon; high water at about 15:10 (1.25 m above mean sea level, a model). Model gusts at Lisbon in the ensemble: median 69 km/h, nine in ten below 85 km/h. ECMWF ensemble and tide model (incident.datascience@)
  6. Fact TAF: wind turning west-north-west 12 kt by 18:00, no significant weather. Lisbon TAF
  7. Fact Red rain warnings end in all eight districts. IPMA warnings
  8. Fact TAF: at times west-north-west 17 kt gusting 27 (50 km/h). Lisbon TAF
  9. Fact Lisbon's orange wind and orange sea warnings end; yellow sea (waves 4 to 5 m) to 03:00 Thursday. Faro's red wind ends. IPMA warnings
  10. Fact No IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow on Thursday morning. IPMA's model: west wind, mean 15 to 24 km/h; showers, rain chance up to 92%. IPMA warnings and IPMA's hourly model (run 07:56)
  11. Fact Web Summit's word on Day 3 (Thursday): it "aims to proceed as planned", an aim, not yet a decision. Web Summit, 10 Nov 19:09

IPMA's warnings, district by district, hour by hour

IPMA's warnings in force, hour by hour, Wednesday 11 November 00:00 to Thursday 03:00 UTC (Lisbon time). Each cell says its level: R red, O orange, Y yellow. The line marks this edition's as-of time, 12:05.
District · hazard000306091215182100IPMA's window (UTC)
Lisbon
Lisboa · RainRRRRRRRRRred 09:00–18:00
Lisboa · SeaOOOOOOOOOYYYYYYorange 12:00–21:00, yellow 21:00–Thu 03:00
Lisboa · WindOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 09:00–21:00
Rest of the mainland (red and orange only)
Beja · RainRRRRRRRRRred 09:00–18:00
Castelo Branco · RainOOOOORRRRRRorange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00
Faro · RainRRRRRRRRRred 09:00–18:00
Faro · WindRRRRRRRRRRRRred 09:00–21:00
Leiria · RainOOOOORRRRRRorange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00
Portalegre · RainOOOOORRRRRRorange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00
Santarém · RainOOOOORRRRRRorange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00
Setúbal · RainRRRRRRRRRred 09:00–18:00
Aveiro · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Beja · SeaOOOOOOOOOorange 12:00–21:00
Beja · WindOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 09:00–21:00
Braga · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Bragança · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Coimbra · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Évora · RainOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–18:00
Faro · SeaOOOOOOOOOorange 12:00–21:00
Guarda · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Porto · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Setúbal · SeaOOOOOOOOOorange 12:00–21:00
Setúbal · WindOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 09:00–21:00
Viana do Castelo · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Vila Real · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Viseu · RainOOOOOOOOOOOOOOorange 07:17–21:00
Madeira
Funchal · WindOOOOorange 07:33–12:00
Madeira, mountains · WindOOOOorange 07:33–12:00
Madeira, north coast · WindOOOOorange 07:33–12:00
Porto Santo · WindOOOOorange 07:33–12:00
Fact Drawn from IPMA's own warnings open data, read . Lisbon shows every level; beyond Lisbon our feed keeps red and orange only, so yellow there is not drawn (blank is not "no warning"). Madeira's earlier red rain (to 06:00) and the Madeira warnings that had ended before our read are not drawn. Warnings change: IPMA's warnings page is the one that counts.

Signs to watch at the stations

  • Hypothesis The wind's direction at the airport: backing toward east while the pressure falls fits a centre passing south of Lisbon; a swing to north-west with rising pressure would mean it has passed. incident.meteorologist@, 11:28
  • Hypothesis Thunderstorm cells (TCU or CB in the METAR): the TAF gives its strongest gusts only with thunderstorms, so a short, sharp spell is the case to watch, not a long blow. our reading of the TAF
  • Hypothesis Hourly rain above 6 mm at the city's stations around high water (about 15:10, modelled): the press reports the risk of rain and tide together hindering drainage in the big cities. tide model; CNN Portugal live, 08:27

This edition gives no scenario shares: we do not yet hold an ensemble of model runs (see "What we do not hold yet").

Three tracks for the afternoon: the ensemble

Hypothesis Where the storm's centre crosses 9.5° W, off Lisbon, in each of the ECMWF ensemble's 51 forecasts. Shares of forecasts, not the chance of it happening.

North of Lisbon

10%

5 of 51 forecasts

Near Lisbon

41%

21 of 51 forecasts

South of Lisbon

49%

25 of 51 forecasts

Hypothesis Median crossing: . Highest model gust at Lisbon: median 69.1 km/h; one forecast in ten above 85 km/h, one in ten below 55.4 km/h, all of them under the 120 km/h in IPMA's orange warning. A model at a point, on a 25 km grid: confidence medium for the north/near/south split (a clear low on a 25 km grid); low for the gust values. ECMWF IFS ensemble, via Open-Meteo (CC BY 4.0), read

What the authorities have decided

WhoDecisionPublished (UTC)Label
Government of PortugalAlert situation for the whole mainland, Wednesday 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services closed; outdoor events suspended. timeline · source10 Nov 12:10Fact
Web SummitDay 2 (Wednesday) will not take place, on the government's formal advice; Day 3 (Thursday) "aims to proceed as planned". timeline · source10 Nov 19:09Fact
Lisbon City Council (mayor)All of Lisbon's road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too. record10 Nov 13:16 (press)Evidence
CP and Infraestruturas de PortugalFour trains across the 25 de Abril bridge suppressed, 12:00 to 15:00. record10 Nov 23:10 (press)Evidence
LusoponteVasco da Gama bridge limited to 100 km/h because of the weather. timeline11 Nov 09:24 (Lusa)Evidence
Carris (Lisbon buses and trams)Service kept with priority to essential journeys; trams 12E, 15E, 18E, 24E, 25E and 28E interrupted; Graça funicular closed since 10:40; Web Summit shuttles cancelled. Fertagus trains: normal service, confirmed at 10:40. timeline · sourceread 11:52 at source (no update time on the page)Evidence
Transtejo SoflusaRiver crossings between Lisbon and the south bank kept running from 05:00 (one crossing, Porto Brandão–Trafaria–Belém, reported suspended in the morning). record10 Nov 18:57; 11 Nov 05:44 (press)Evidence
TAP Air PortugalOperations adjusted; tickets for travel to 11 Nov may be changed without penalty to flights up to 17 Nov. record10 Nov 16:09 (press)Evidence
Lisbon's hospitalsWednesday's scheduled activity rescheduled (which hospitals: not stated). record10 Nov 18:29 (Lusa headline)Evidence
Madeira's Regional Civil Protection (SRPC)Schools closed Wednesday morning, reopening from 13:00. 205 occurrences to 09:00, none classed as serious. record10 Nov 11:26; 11 Nov 09:00 (press)Evidence

Every decision with its addresses and the time read: decisions and the entity files (incident.researcher@). Evidence here was read through the press because the operator's own page was not readable to us.

Sources compared, with our confidence

Rain, Lisbon: high · Wind, Lisbon: low · Worst window: medium · Track of the centre: medium · Sea and tide: medium · Madeira: high · End of the event: medium

TopicIPMA (Fact)Forecasts and models (Fact)Observed (Fact)Press (Evidence)Agree or differOur assessment (Hypothesis)Confidence (ours)
Rain, LisbonRed, 09:00–18:00: "strong and persistent"TAF: rain all afternoon, heavy with a 30% thunderstorm chance 12:00–16:003–6.5 mm an hour at the four city stations, 07:00–10:00; 15 to 24 mm in the five hours 06:00–10:00Heavy rain about 11:00–15:00, easing after about 18:00 (radio, 10:38)agreeWhat is observed matches the red rain warning in timing and character.high
Wind, LisbonOrange, 09:00–21:00: gusts up to 120 km/h (lowered from red at 07:16)TAF lowered twice: at times 65 km/h gusts, 30% chance of 102 km/h in thunderstorms; ECMWF ensemble gusts at Lisbon: median 69, 90th percentile 85 km/hAirport 17 km/h, no gust (11:00); highest gust since Tuesday 67 km/h (Tue 11:00)Reports the lowered warning; some attribute more to IPMA than it wrotedifferSo far far below the warning; the forecasts have come down toward the observations. Gusts near the warned strength would most likely come only in thunderstorms.low
Worst windowWarnings overlap 12:00–18:00 (red rain, orange wind, orange sea)TAF: strongest groups 12:00–16:00, quieter from 16:00–18:00Pressure 998 hPa at 11:00 and falling11:00–15:00 (radio)mostly agreeThe early afternoon, to about 16:00, is the window the sources share; the peak hour within it is not known.medium
Track of the centreCommuniqué no. 2 (10 Nov 17:07): toward the mainland, "high uncertainty in track and intensity"ECMWF ensemble (51 forecasts): 49% south of Lisbon, 41% near, 10% north; median crossing about 15:00Wind backing south-south-east to east-south-east with falling pressureTrack moved south, toward the Algarve (radio, 10:38; not IPMA in writing)mostly agreeNorth of Lisbon is now the outlier; near or south, as the observed wind and Faro's red wind suggest. Which of the two is open.medium
Sea and tideOrange sea, 12:00–21:00: waves 5–7 m, up to 13 m; yellow to 03:00IPMA's model: sea 3–3.5 m Thursday morning; tide model: high water about 15:10 (1.25 m), next about 03:10 ThursdayNo gauge or buoy in our data; Instituto Hidrográfico's official table needs an account (not read)Rain at high tide may hinder drainage (live blog, 08:27)no conflictHigh water falls inside the red rain window; the warning is the written word on the sea.medium
MadeiraRed rain to 06:00, then orange; orange wind to 12:00 (130 km/h in the mountains)n/a249.5 mm in six hours at Areeiro (01:00–06:00); airport wind dropped from 89 km/h gusts at 07:00 to 13 km/h at 08:00Regional president: 479 mm somewhere on the island; 205 occurrences, none seriousagreeThe worst has passed Madeira; the risk now is what the rain left (slopes, streams), which only the regional civil protection can state.high
End of the eventLisbon: rain to 18:00, wind and sea to 21:00, yellow sea to 03:00; nothing above yellow on ThursdayTAF: no significant weather from about 18:00; showers on Thursdayn/a yetEasing after about 18:00agreeThursday morning looks like showers and a westerly wind, not a storm; Web Summit's Day 3 word is still awaited.medium

Confidence is ours: HIGH where the official word, the forecasts and the observations agree; MEDIUM where they agree in outline but one is missing or vague; LOW where they differ. It is a judgement about our reading, not a probability of the weather. Sources: warnings, airport (METAR, TAF), stations, IPMA's and MET Norway's runs, IPMA's communiqués, the meteorologist's analysis, the timeline.

Who is exposed

Fact Residents (INE, Census 2021) of each IPMA warning area, counted under the highest level in force there in each hour, any hazard: arithmetic on two facts, IPMA's windows and INE's counts. Where people live, not where they are at a given hour, and never a count of people harmed. Hours before about 07:00 are not drawn (earlier warnings had left IPMA's file).

3.76 M
3.76 M
3.76 M
4.93 M
4.93 M
4.93 M
4.93 M
4.93 M
4.93 M
467 k
467 k
467 k
red orange yellow stacked; the number is the residents under red. Peak under red: 4.93 M from 12:00. incident.datascience@ (IPMA × INE), read
District under redResidentsAged 65+Red hazardRed window (UTC)Hours
Lisboa2,275,385489,002Rain09:00–18:009
Setúbal874,806198,700Rain09:00–18:009
Faro467,343110,949Rain and Wind09:00–21:0012
Leiria458,605116,927Rain12:00–18:006
Santarém424,973116,203Rain12:00–18:006
Castelo Branco177,96257,439Rain12:00–18:006
Beja144,40138,383Rain09:00–18:009
Portalegre104,92331,378Rain12:00–18:006
All eight4,928,3981,158,981

Evidence 155 hospitals are mapped in OpenStreetMap in these eight districts (86 in the Lisbon metropolitan area): a map of buildings, not a statement that any is open or has capacity. OSM via HOT export (ODbL), read

Lisbon metropolitan area, municipality by municipality

Municipality (Lisbon metropolitan area)Residents FactAged 65+ FactLow land, km² HypothesisResidents on it HypothesisHospitals mapped Evidence
Lisboa545,796127,7682.78,50039
Sintra385,60668,8850.107
Cascais214,12448,4610.46008
Loures201,59044,3069.85,9003
Almada177,23842,1855.112,7005
Oeiras171,65841,2480.78004
Amadora171,45438,087005
Seixal166,50735,8374.88,5001
Odivelas148,03430,912001
Vila Franca de Xira137,52925,424131.112,9001
Setúbal123,49628,49314.67,3008
Mafra86,51515,3750.62000
Barreiro78,34520,0253.711,3001
Palmela68,85214,5646.21000
Moita66,25514,5146.112,4000
Montijo55,68210,4455.75,1003
Sesimbra52,38410,6861.61000
Alcochete19,1433,40717.51,8000

Low land is where sea or river water can reach first; it is not a flood map and not a warning. LOW to MEDIUM. The DEM is a surface model: roofs and trees lift built-up Lisbon, so low land in the city is UNDER-counted; its vertical error (a few metres) is of the size of the band itself. Heights are above the EGM2008 geoid, close to but not the same as mean sea level or IH's chart datum. Residents on low land assume people spread evenly within a hexagon. Census 2021 counts. INE Census 2021, Copernicus DEM, Kontur, OSM, read

Lisbon, square by square

Hypothesis Lisbon in 49 squares of 2 km, rows A (north) to G, columns 1 (west) to 7: residents (estimate; darker, more), "low": residents estimated on land 0.5 to 5 m above sea level, H: hospitals mapped in OpenStreetMap (Evidence). Confidence: MEDIUM for residents per square; LOW for low land in built-up squares (surface model, roofs lift it). Kontur population (CC BY 4.0), Copernicus DEM, OSM (ODbL), read

Tides

PlaceHigh water (UTC), height above mean sea levelNext high waterHighest model wave (m)
Cascais (Tagus mouth) · 1.23 m · 1.05 m4.64
Lisbon (Tagus, nearest sea cell) · 1.25 m · 1.07 m4.5
Funchal · 0.67 m · 0.74 m4.86

Evidence A model, not Instituto Hidrográfico's official tide table (which needs an account; not read). Confidence: MEDIUM for times of high and low water at Cascais and Funchal (astronomical tide well modelled); LOW for Lisbon inside the estuary; storm surge in the model is not verified against a gauge. Open-Meteo Marine (CC BY 4.0), read

Annex: the stations, Madeira, transport, gaps and method

Lisbon

IPMA station06:0007:0008:0009:0010:00Sum
Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda2.44.43.74.94.820.2
Lisboa, Carnide (CML)2.14.34.44.44.419.6
Lisboa, Amoreiras (LFCL)1.63.13.23.63.815.3
Lisboa, Relógio2.25.14.96.45.424.0

Fact Rain in mm in the hour IPMA labels, IPMA station observations, read .

Fact Lisbon airport at 11:00: wind 17 km/h, no gust reported, +RA BR, visibility 1.24 statute miles, 998 hPa. Highest gust in the hours we hold: 67 km/h (36 kt) at 11:00 on Tuesday. METAR LPPT 111100Z 11009KT 090V150 2000 +RA BR FEW001 BKN004 FEW015TCU 16/16 Q0998 NOSIG METAR, NOAA Aviation Weather, read

Fact Thursday morning (Web Summit's Day 3): no IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow; IPMA's model, run 07:56: mean wind 15.1 to 24.1 km/h from the W, rain chance up to 92%, sea 3 to 3.5 m. IPMA's hourly model, read

Madeira

IPMA stationMost rain in 6 hours (mm)Hours labelled (UTC)
Madeira, Areeiro249.501:00 to 06:00
Madeira, São Vicente141.522:00 to 03:00 (from Tuesday)
Madeira, Santo da Serra130.421:00 to 02:00 (from Tuesday)
Madeira, Pico Alto126.803:00 to 08:00
Madeira, Pico do Areeiro123.920:00 to 01:00 (from Tuesday)
Madeira, Monte85.602:00 to 07:00

Fact IPMA station observations, read . IPMA's stations report no gusts; Madeira's gusts are in the airport's METARs.

  • orange Funchal, wind: orange 07:33–12:00. Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
  • orange Madeira, mountains, wind: orange 07:33–12:00. Windgusts up to 130 km/h.
  • orange Madeira, north coast, wind: orange 07:33–12:00. Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, specially in west and east.
  • orange Porto Santo, wind: orange 07:33–12:00. Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
  • Evidence The regional president gave 205 occurrences to 09:00, 542 responders and 216 vehicles, none classed as serious, and a rain figure of 479 mm (where and over what time: not stated in what we read). Timeline
  • Fact The airport's wind fell from south-west gusts of 89 km/h at 07:00 to north-east 13 km/h at 08:00. Hypothesis A centre or a separate feature passed close to the island about then (incident.meteorologist@). Timeline

Getting around: flights, buses, ferries

AirportAirline departures seenHours covered (UTC)By hour of first detection
Lisbon (Humberto Delgado) LPPT42from 06:25116161080
Porto (Francisco Sá Carneiro) LPPR16from 08:4423470
Faro LPFR0from 08:1500000
Funchal (Madeira, Cristiano Ronaldo) LPMA0not covered

Fact What OpenSky Network's volunteer receivers saw, in our readings today: a floor, not a total; coverage is thin at Faro and Funchal, so a zero there means "not seen", not "none flew". incident.transport@, read .

Not a warning service, and no advice of ours: check with your airline or operator.

What we do not hold yet

Still missing; we print no figure until it is read at its own source, with its licence.

WhatWho, from what sourceState at 12:05
Precedents: Leslie (2018), Elsa (2019) and later storms, highest gust, incidents, customers without powerincident.datascience@ and incident.researcher@not yet in our data
Tides, official: Instituto Hidrográfico's table for Lisbon, Cascais and Funchalincident.datascience@ (Instituto Hidrográfico)this edition uses a model (Open-Meteo Marine); IH's table needs an account and was not read
Power cuts: customers without powerincident.datascience@ (E-REDES)not yet in our data

How this brief is made, and where every figure comes from

  • Written by incident.brief@web-summit.dinis, one agent of the incident team run for Dinis Cruz; the words of this edition are in edition-2.json and the page is drawn by tools/brief-make.mjs from the incident's files, read at the times shown. The same files are served for agents at api/v1.
  • Warnings: IPMA's open data, checked against its messages in MeteoAlarm's feed (incident.meteorologist@). Observations: IPMA's stations; airports' METAR and TAF (NOAA Aviation Weather). Models: IPMA's hourly model and MET Norway. Decisions: incident.researcher@'s entity files. Flights and buses: incident.transport@ (OpenSky Network, Carris Metropolitana, Transtejo Soflusa). Press: our timeline, each item with its link.
  • Learned from the shape of Watchfloor (Notamy Ltd)'s decision brief of 11 November, with thanks; none of its words or figures is used here (exposure, ensemble and tide figures are our own, read at each source by incident.datascience@) (what it holds).
  • No model output is quoted as fact; hypotheses are ours and say so. Corrections: the "Contact us" link on every page.