PrompTugal News · storm-charles.promptugal.news · Decision brief
Edition 1 · as of (Lisbon time) · SC-BRIEF-20261111-E1
Not an official warning. IPMA issues the warnings and ANEPC the instructions. Not a warning service: no forecast or advice of ours.
Next edition: At the next big change: an IPMA message, Web Summit's word on Day 3, or the end of the storm; then an "after the storm" edition, forecast beside observations.
Live: storm-charles.promptugal.news · this brief: /brief/
PDF (A4 landscape): edition 1 · the latest edition
Fact IPMA has red rain warnings in force today over eight mainland districts: Lisbon, Setúbal, Beja and Faro from 09:00 to 18:00, Leiria, Santarém, Castelo Branco and Portalegre from 12:00 to 18:00. Faro also has a red wind warning to 21:00 (gusts up to 120 km/h, possibly 140 km/h in the most exposed places). IPMA warnings, open data, read
Fact In Lisbon the rain is heavy and steady, 3 to 6.5 mm an hour at each of IPMA's four stations in the city, in every hour from 07:00 to 10:00; the wind so far is far below the warning (the airport observed 17 km/h and no gust at 11:00). IPMA lowered Lisbon's wind warning from red to orange at 07:16; it runs to 21:00. IPMA station observations, read · Lisbon airport METAR (NOAA Aviation Weather), read
Hypothesis Where the centre passes is still uncertain: our meteorologist's latest reading (low confidence) is that it may pass south of Lisbon. A lull is not the end: IPMA's warnings, not the weather outside, say when it is over. incident.meteorologist@, analysis 11:28, read
| District · hazard | 00 | 03 | 06 | 09 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 00 | IPMA's window (UTC) | ||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | Y | orange 12:00–21:00, yellow 21:00–Thu 03:00 | ||||||||||||
| Lisboa · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Rest of the mainland (red and orange only) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Beja · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Castelo Branco · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Wind | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Leiria · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Portalegre · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Santarém · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | R | R | R | R | R | R | orange 07:17–12:00, red 12:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Rain | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | red 09:00–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Aveiro · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Beja · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Beja · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Braga · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Bragança · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Coimbra · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Évora · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–18:00 | ||||||||||||||||
| Faro · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Guarda · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Porto · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Sea | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 12:00–21:00 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Setúbal · Wind | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 09:00–21:00 | |||||||||||||||
| Viana do Castelo · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Vila Real · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Viseu · Rain | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | O | orange 07:17–21:00 | |||||||||||||
| Madeira | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Funchal · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Madeira, mountains · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Madeira, north coast · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Porto Santo · Wind | O | O | O | O | orange 07:33–12:00 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Who | Decision | Published (UTC) | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| Government of Portugal | Alert situation for the whole mainland, Wednesday 00:00 to 23:59: schools and non-essential public services closed; outdoor events suspended. timeline · source | 10 Nov 12:10 | Fact |
| Web Summit | Day 2 (Wednesday) will not take place, on the government's formal advice; Day 3 (Thursday) "aims to proceed as planned". timeline · source | 10 Nov 19:09 | Fact |
| Lisbon City Council (mayor) | All of Lisbon's road tunnels closed from midnight; parks, gardens and cultural facilities too. record | 10 Nov 13:16 (press) | Evidence |
| CP and Infraestruturas de Portugal | Four trains across the 25 de Abril bridge suppressed, 12:00 to 15:00. record | 10 Nov 23:10 (press) | Evidence |
| Lusoponte | Vasco da Gama bridge limited to 100 km/h because of the weather. timeline | 11 Nov 09:24 (Lusa) | Evidence |
| Transtejo Soflusa | River crossings between Lisbon and the south bank kept running from 05:00 (one crossing, Porto Brandão–Trafaria–Belém, reported suspended in the morning). record | 10 Nov 18:57; 11 Nov 05:44 (press) | Evidence |
| TAP Air Portugal | Operations adjusted; tickets for travel to 11 Nov may be changed without penalty to flights up to 17 Nov. record | 10 Nov 16:09 (press) | Evidence |
| Lisbon's hospitals | Wednesday's scheduled activity rescheduled (which hospitals: not stated). record | 10 Nov 18:29 (Lusa headline) | Evidence |
| Madeira's Regional Civil Protection (SRPC) | Schools closed Wednesday morning, reopening from 13:00. 205 occurrences to 09:00, none classed as serious. record | 10 Nov 11:26; 11 Nov 09:00 (press) | Evidence |
Every decision with its addresses and the time read: decisions and the entity files (incident.researcher@). Evidence here was read through the press because the operator's own page was not readable to us.
Rain, Lisbon: high · Wind, Lisbon: low · Worst window: medium · Track of the centre: low · Sea and tide: medium · Madeira: high · End of the event: medium
| Topic | IPMA (Fact) | Forecasts and models (Fact) | Observed (Fact) | Press (Evidence) | Agree or differ | Our assessment (Hypothesis) | Confidence (ours) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rain, Lisbon | Red, 09:00–18:00: "strong and persistent" | TAF: rain all afternoon, heavy with a 30% thunderstorm chance 12:00–16:00 | 3–6.5 mm an hour at the four city stations, 07:00–10:00; 15 to 24 mm in the five hours 06:00–10:00 | Heavy rain about 11:00–15:00, easing after about 18:00 (radio, 10:38) | agree | What is observed matches the red rain warning in timing and character. | high |
| Wind, Lisbon | Orange, 09:00–21:00: gusts up to 120 km/h (lowered from red at 07:16) | TAF lowered twice: at times 65 km/h gusts; 30% chance of 102 km/h in thunderstorms | Airport 17 km/h, no gust (11:00); highest gust since Tuesday 67 km/h (Tue 11:00) | Reports the lowered warning; some attribute more to IPMA than it wrote | differ | So far far below the warning; the forecasts have come down toward the observations. Gusts near the warned strength would most likely come only in thunderstorms. | low |
| Worst window | Warnings overlap 12:00–18:00 (red rain, orange wind, orange sea) | TAF: strongest groups 12:00–16:00, quieter from 16:00–18:00 | Pressure 998 hPa at 11:00 and falling | 11:00–15:00 (radio) | mostly agree | The early afternoon, to about 16:00, is the window the sources share; the peak hour within it is not known. | medium |
| Track of the centre | Communiqué no. 2 (10 Nov 17:07): toward the mainland, "high uncertainty in track and intensity" | IPMA's and MET Norway's runs (07:56): a lull around 13:00, then a swing of the wind | Wind backing south-south-east to east-south-east with falling pressure | Track moved south, toward the Algarve (radio, 10:38; not IPMA in writing) | differ | Passing south of Lisbon is now as likely as passing north on what we hold; Faro's red wind fits a southern track. | low |
| Sea and tide | Orange sea, 12:00–21:00: waves 5–7 m, up to 13 m; yellow to 03:00 | IPMA's model: sea 3–3.5 m Thursday morning | None of our own (no buoy, no tide gauge in our data) | Rain at high tide may hinder drainage (live blog, 08:27) | no conflict | The warning is the only written word; the tide table is a gap we are filling. | medium |
| Madeira | Red rain to 06:00, then orange; orange wind to 12:00 (130 km/h in the mountains) | n/a | 249.5 mm in six hours at Areeiro (01:00–06:00); airport wind dropped from 89 km/h gusts at 07:00 to 13 km/h at 08:00 | Regional president: 479 mm somewhere on the island; 205 occurrences, none serious | agree | The worst has passed Madeira; the risk now is what the rain left (slopes, streams), which only the regional civil protection can state. | high |
| End of the event | Lisbon: rain to 18:00, wind and sea to 21:00, yellow sea to 03:00; nothing above yellow on Thursday | TAF: no significant weather from about 18:00; showers on Thursday | n/a yet | Easing after about 18:00 | agree | Thursday morning looks like showers and a westerly wind, not a storm; Web Summit's Day 3 word is still awaited. | medium |
Confidence is ours: HIGH where the official word, the forecasts and the observations agree; MEDIUM where they agree in outline but one is missing or vague; LOW where they differ. It is a judgement about our reading, not a probability of the weather. Sources: warnings, airport (METAR, TAF), stations, IPMA's and MET Norway's runs, IPMA's communiqués, the meteorologist's analysis, the timeline.
| IPMA station | 06:00 | 07:00 | 08:00 | 09:00 | 10:00 | Sum |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda | 2.4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 20.2 |
| Lisboa, Carnide (CML) | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 19.6 |
| Lisboa, Amoreiras (LFCL) | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 15.3 |
| Lisboa, Relógio | 2.2 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 24.0 |
Fact Rain in mm in the hour IPMA labels, IPMA station observations, read .
Fact Lisbon airport at 11:00: wind 17 km/h, no gust reported, +RA BR, visibility 1.24 statute miles, 998 hPa. Highest gust in the hours we hold: 67 km/h (36 kt) at 11:00 on Tuesday. METAR LPPT 111100Z 11009KT 090V150 2000 +RA BR FEW001 BKN004 FEW015TCU 16/16 Q0998 NOSIG METAR, NOAA Aviation Weather, read
Fact Thursday morning (Web Summit's Day 3): no IPMA warning for Lisbon above yellow; IPMA's model, run 07:56: mean wind 15.1 to 24.1 km/h from the W, rain chance up to 92%, sea 3 to 3.5 m. IPMA's hourly model, read
| IPMA station | Most rain in 6 hours (mm) | Hours labelled (UTC) |
|---|---|---|
| Madeira, Areeiro | 249.5 | 01:00 to 06:00 |
| Madeira, São Vicente | 141.5 | 22:00 to 03:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Santo da Serra | 130.4 | 21:00 to 02:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Pico Alto | 126.8 | 03:00 to 08:00 |
| Madeira, Pico do Areeiro | 123.9 | 20:00 to 01:00 (from Tuesday) |
| Madeira, Monte | 85.6 | 02:00 to 07:00 |
Fact IPMA station observations, read . IPMA's stations report no gusts; Madeira's gusts are in the airport's METARs.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
Windgusts up to 130 km/h.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h, specially in west and east.
Wind gusts of up to 100 km/h.
| Airport | Airline departures seen | Hours covered (UTC) | By hour of first detection |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lisbon (Humberto Delgado) | 38 | from 06:25 | 11616104 |
| Porto (Francisco Sá Carneiro) | 14 | from 08:44 | 2345 |
| Faro | 0 | from 08:15 | 0000 |
| Funchal (Madeira, Cristiano Ronaldo) | 0 | not covered |
Fact What OpenSky Network's volunteer receivers saw, in our readings today: a floor, not a total; coverage is thin at Faro and Funchal, so a zero there means "not seen", not "none flew". incident.transport@, read .
Watchfloor's brief showed us what a decision brief needs; these parts are not yet in our data. We print no figure until it is read at its own source, with its licence. They are being added by incident.datascience@ and will appear in the next editions.
| What | Who, from what source | State at 11:40 |
|---|---|---|
| Who is exposed: people under each level, by district and hour (and aged 65+) | incident.datascience@ (Kontur population, INE Census 2021, on IPMA's warning areas) | not yet in our data; this brief shows no people count until each is read at its own source |
| Precedents: Leslie (2018), Elsa (2019) and later storms, highest gust, incidents, customers without power | incident.datascience@ and incident.researcher@ | not yet in our data |
| Tides: high-water times and heights for Lisbon, Cascais and Funchal | incident.datascience@ (Instituto Hidrográfico) | not yet in our data |
| Model ensembles: shares of the ECMWF ensemble's tracks north, near and south of Lisbon | incident.datascience@ (ECMWF open data, CC BY 4.0) | not yet in our data; without it this edition gives no scenario shares |
| Power cuts: customers without power | incident.datascience@ (E-REDES) | not yet in our data |